Cedar Vale, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

513
FXUS63 KICT 090532
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1232 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of central and
  south-central KS this afternoon; additional development possible
  this evening and tonight
- More storm chances Wednesday morning and Thursday morning; small
  rain chances for late weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
As of 2 PM, numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across
portions of central and south-central KS. These are due in part to a
persistent low-mid level WAA pattern. The duration of these storms
has been due to the large scale midlevel trough remaining well-west
across northeast CO and the mean flow is orthogonal to the initiation
zone. Latest WV reveals the main shortwave trough is ejecting into
northwest KS and is gradually shifting the axis of rainfall east and
southeast. Thus far, MRMS is suggesting upwards of 12" of rain has
fallen over portions of Lincoln, Ellsworth, and Saline counties.
Fortunately, the heaviest rain is shifting out of these areas.
The LLJ will strengthen overnight from the eastern TX Panhandle
through southeast NE. This may provide another focal point for WAA
driven showers and storms along and east of the KS Turnpike. PW up
to 1.5" once again will support heavy rainfall. Another
night/morning of WAA driven convection is possible late Tuesday
through Wednesday morning with the best chances west of I-135. The
midlevel ridge will slide across the area Thursday into the upcoming
weekend. A strong midlevel trough will eject into the northern
Plains late Saturday into Sunday, shunting a cold front towards the
area for Sunday. The overall pattern will become dominate by an
omega block with troughing in the western and eastern CONUS with
ridging across the Plains. This is should lead to mostly dry
conditions with seasonal temperatures next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The main impact to aviation will be showers and storms primarily
at CNU. There is some uncertainty with timing and coverage so
went with a PROB30 at this time. Outside of storms, VFR
conditions are expected at all TAF sites. Southerly winds will
pick up in the early afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts mainly at
ICT and HUT.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...GC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion