Ceresco, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

613
FXUS63 KGRR 240754
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
354 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Early morning fog trends
- Upper low related clouds and showers today and Thursday
- Dry and warmer into the weekend and early next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Early morning fog trends
Fog and stratus is very much aligned along and near the surface
front which looks to stretch from Lansing and Mason southwest to
near Battle Creek as of 330am. Areas from Grand Rapids to the
south and east are the locations that saw rain in the past 24
hours, so it is not surprising that this morning`s fog/stratus is
located near the axis of higher dew points and in areas that
increased low level moisture locally by rainfall. Consensus of
short term models shows the lower ceilings and fog expanding in
all areas between GRR and JXN through daybreak. It will take into
the early afternoon most likely before we can begin to break up
the low clouds. As for visibilities and the chance of a Dense Fog
Advisory, the worst conditions will likely occur across Eaton,
Ingham, Kalamazoo, Calhoun and Jackson counties. At this time, not
confident enough in how widespread the dense fog will become. Only
AZO and BTL are at a 1/4 mile now and the webcams in the area do
not look too bad. Holding off for now, but will be monitoring
webcams and obs the rest of the night.
- Upper low related clouds and showers today and Thursday
The upper low will be overhead from today into Thursday night. We
should see enough breaks in the overcast to build at least
scattered showers today. Instability today (less than 1,000 j/kg)
will not be as great as yesterday. Thursday`s MUCAPE will be even
lower, 500 j/kg or less. Bottom line is the upper low will drive
some diurnal shower activity, but feel our thunder threat is much
lower today and will be even lower tomorrow. We are in a general
thunder outlook today via the SPC, but out of it for Thursday.
Agree with that assessment.
The upper trough will pull away to the east Thursday night which
will end the multi day precipitation that we have seen.
- Dry and warmer into the weekend and early next week
Dry and warmer will be the theme as we head into the weekend and
early next week. Heights will rise over the Great Lakes in a rex
block pattern with ridging in the our area and an upper low off to
our south. Bottom line is we should see sunshine, dry weather and
high temperatures that will trend to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. 80 degrees will be roughly 15 degrees above normal highs
for September 28th and 29th.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Two main concerns during this TAF period (06z-06z) are fog/stratus
which is already occurring and the chance of showers/storms today.
Fog and stratus has already formed as of 06z and is most
concentrated near and just north of a cold front that is sagging
southward through the area. The front stretches from the thumb,
southwestward to near Battle Creek and South Bend, IN. The lowest
conditions are occurring near this front with AZO, BTL and FPK
seeing the lowest conditions with visibilities at 1/2 and 1/4
mile. We expect the fog and stratus to expand early this morning
and affect all the TAF sites significantly with the exception of
MKG. They may be just far enough behind the front where conditions
do not bottom out in the LIFR and VLIFR categories. It will likely
take into the early afternoon hours before aviation conditions
improve to at least MVFR in all areas. We will trend towards VFR
in all areas in the late afternoon and early evening.
Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible today with
an upper low overhead and a weak front nearby. At this point using
VCSH wording to cover the threat. Showers should be most numerous
this afternoon in the heat of the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
We expect conditions to remain below advisory levels over the
course of the next few days. Today we will see waves build however
as north winds increase into the 10-20 knot range. The pressure
gradient tightens a bit today as high pressure in the upper
midwest combines with low pressure in the Ohio Valley. The north
wind will remain in that 10-20 knot range tonight before gradually
dropping off into Thursday. There was some concern yesterday about
a deeper low in the ECMWF, but it has backed off to a
weaker/further east low now which should keep conditions sub
advisory. Lighter winds look to continue Friday and into the
weekend.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion