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Ceresco, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

613
FXUS63 KGRR 240754
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 354 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning fog trends

- Upper low related clouds and showers today and Thursday

- Dry and warmer into the weekend and early next week

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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

- Early morning fog trends

Fog and stratus is very much aligned along and near the surface front which looks to stretch from Lansing and Mason southwest to near Battle Creek as of 330am. Areas from Grand Rapids to the south and east are the locations that saw rain in the past 24 hours, so it is not surprising that this morning`s fog/stratus is located near the axis of higher dew points and in areas that increased low level moisture locally by rainfall. Consensus of short term models shows the lower ceilings and fog expanding in all areas between GRR and JXN through daybreak. It will take into the early afternoon most likely before we can begin to break up the low clouds. As for visibilities and the chance of a Dense Fog Advisory, the worst conditions will likely occur across Eaton, Ingham, Kalamazoo, Calhoun and Jackson counties. At this time, not confident enough in how widespread the dense fog will become. Only AZO and BTL are at a 1/4 mile now and the webcams in the area do not look too bad. Holding off for now, but will be monitoring webcams and obs the rest of the night.

- Upper low related clouds and showers today and Thursday

The upper low will be overhead from today into Thursday night. We should see enough breaks in the overcast to build at least scattered showers today. Instability today (less than 1,000 j/kg) will not be as great as yesterday. Thursday`s MUCAPE will be even lower, 500 j/kg or less. Bottom line is the upper low will drive some diurnal shower activity, but feel our thunder threat is much lower today and will be even lower tomorrow. We are in a general thunder outlook today via the SPC, but out of it for Thursday. Agree with that assessment.

The upper trough will pull away to the east Thursday night which will end the multi day precipitation that we have seen.

- Dry and warmer into the weekend and early next week

Dry and warmer will be the theme as we head into the weekend and early next week. Heights will rise over the Great Lakes in a rex block pattern with ridging in the our area and an upper low off to our south. Bottom line is we should see sunshine, dry weather and high temperatures that will trend to around 80 on Sunday and Monday. 80 degrees will be roughly 15 degrees above normal highs for September 28th and 29th.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 219 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Two main concerns during this TAF period (06z-06z) are fog/stratus which is already occurring and the chance of showers/storms today.

Fog and stratus has already formed as of 06z and is most concentrated near and just north of a cold front that is sagging southward through the area. The front stretches from the thumb, southwestward to near Battle Creek and South Bend, IN. The lowest conditions are occurring near this front with AZO, BTL and FPK seeing the lowest conditions with visibilities at 1/2 and 1/4 mile. We expect the fog and stratus to expand early this morning and affect all the TAF sites significantly with the exception of MKG. They may be just far enough behind the front where conditions do not bottom out in the LIFR and VLIFR categories. It will likely take into the early afternoon hours before aviation conditions improve to at least MVFR in all areas. We will trend towards VFR in all areas in the late afternoon and early evening.

Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible today with an upper low overhead and a weak front nearby. At this point using VCSH wording to cover the threat. Showers should be most numerous this afternoon in the heat of the day.

&&

.MARINE... Issued at 354 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

We expect conditions to remain below advisory levels over the course of the next few days. Today we will see waves build however as north winds increase into the 10-20 knot range. The pressure gradient tightens a bit today as high pressure in the upper midwest combines with low pressure in the Ohio Valley. The north wind will remain in that 10-20 knot range tonight before gradually dropping off into Thursday. There was some concern yesterday about a deeper low in the ECMWF, but it has backed off to a weaker/further east low now which should keep conditions sub advisory. Lighter winds look to continue Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Duke

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion

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