Charenton, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

181
FXUS64 KLCH 231726
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An unsettled weather pattern will remain in place over the
  region today through Thursday morning.
- A cold front will push through the region Wednesday evening
  into Thursday accompanied by scattered showers and
  thunderstorms. Drier and somewhat cooler air will filter into
  the region Thursday evening through the weekend.
- There is a Marginal Risk for flash flooding and severe weather
  on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
An upper-level low is digging south from the northern Rockies. At
the surface, low pressure and its associated cold front are
currently located in the Great Plains. This front will move across
the region Wednesday afternoon and into the evening hours. The
SPC has placed us under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather. Looking a little deeper at the kinematics for the event,
ML CAPE will be approximately 2000 J/kg ahead of and along the
front, with MU CAPE over 2500 J/kg. Looking at the 0-6 km winds,
CAMs are showing weak shear values from 20 to 25 knots, but that
will be sufficient to support the development of a QLCS. The SPC
has also highlighted the risk for damaging winds, and model
soundings support that assessment with dCAPE values over 800,
further indicating the chance for damaging downdrafts with the
storms tomorrow.
There is also a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding
tomorrow, as PWAT values will be above 2 inches, which is above
the 90th percentile. With the tropical air mass currently in
place, we will have a skinny CAPE profile, and with the freezing
level above 15 kft, we should expect efficient rainmakers during
this event. As the front moves towards the coast, it will start to
slow with mid-level flow paralleling the front. Rainfall totals
will be between 1 and 3 inches, with local pockets up to 6 inches
being possible. Along and south of I-10 will see the most rain
on Wednesday.
By Thursday morning, the front will be near the shore and will
slowly fade away as it moves offshore. Behind the front, cool, dry
air will move into the area with rain chances dropping as we go
into the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Our post-frontal weather will be pleasant and cool. Cold air
advection behind the front will keep our highs in the 80s, while
overnight lows will drop into the 60s for the rest of the week.
Behind the front, a combination of high pressure and dry air will
lead to clear skies and no rain for the rest of the week and into
the weekend. The most noteworthy thing about the long-term
forecast is the lack of features and noteworthy impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Outside of showers and the occasional thunderstorm, we are looking
at VFR conditions. Near showers and thunderstorms, conditions will
drop to MVFR/IFR with low visibility and ceilings. Background
winds will be from the southeast around 10 knots. Elevated winds
tonight will limit fog formation along the coast but at AEX patchy
fog is expected. After sunrise, widespread showers and
thunderstorms from an approaching front will lead to widespread
MVFR conditions with PROB30 for showers near the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
High pressure continues to keep conditions calm offshore with
winds below 10 knots and seas below 4 feet. Wednesday, an
approaching front will lead to an increase in winds and waves with
gusts near 20 knots and waves approaching 5 feet. As the front
moves offshore, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread with
high winds and waves near convection.
Behind the front, conditions will be benign with low winds and
waves. No marine hazards are expected today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Widespread rain tomorrow will provide some needed relief across
the region, with widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall expected.
After the front moves through the region, dry air will filter
south, dropping our minimum RH values down to 40%. Behind the
front, winds will remain light with 20-foot winds staying below 10
mph.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  90  68  85 /  10  80  80  30
LCH  77  89  73  84 /  10  70  90  60
LFT  76  89  73  83 /  10  60  80  70
BPT  76  89  71  85 /  10  70  90  60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion