Chatfield, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

435
FXUS64 KFWD 141017
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
517 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon
  highs in the lower to mid 90s.
- There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday and
  Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1256 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/
/Through Monday/
A shortwave trough over the Four Corners region will lift
northeast through the Plains overnight through Sunday, with
convection associated with the trough remaining north and west of
the forecast area. The system will continue northeast into the
Midwest Sunday night, but leave a weakness in the northwest flank
of our persistent ridge aloft, which may be just enough to allow
for a few isolated showers or storms. Will hence carry 20 POPs on
Monday for areas generally north of I-20 and west of I-35. The
presence of the shortwave and lingering weakness aloft will also
produce an increase in mid and high level clouds, but temperatures
should still remain a couple degrees above normal with highs in
the lower 90s.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1256 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/
/Monday Night Onward/
The weakness aloft will erode Monday night and Tuesday as the
ridge re-strengthens overhead, putting an end to any low-end rain
chances for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Temperatures through
Wednesday will remain a couple degrees above normal. More
opportunities for convection will arrive starting Wednesday night
as an upper trough deepens over the Plains. The trough will be
comprised of two main shortwaves which will swing across the Red
River region around the base of the main trough; the first
Wednesday night into Thursday and the second on Friday. Both will
bring at least a slight chance of storms, with the best rain
chances being near the Red River. Temperatures should also drop a
little closer to normal values, due to added cloud cover and
lower heights aloft.
The upper trough will continue to deepen as it moves east into the
Mississippi Valley late Friday through next weekend. The ridge
becoming centered over Mexico and the trough located to our east
will result in a northwest flow aloft scenario over North and
Central Texas. This could result in additional rain chances and
eventually a shot of cooler air next weekend or early the
following week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
Mid and high clouds will spread in from the west today, but any
associated precipitation will remain well west of the area. VFR
can be expected area-wide through Monday with south winds around
10kt.
30
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  74  93  73  93 /   0   5   5   0   0
Waco                93  72  91  70  92 /   0   0   5   0   0
Paris               92  70  92  70  92 /   0   0   5   0   5
Denton              93  71  93  70  93 /   0   5  10   0   0
McKinney            93  71  93  70  92 /   0   5   5   0   0
Dallas              94  75  94  74  94 /   0   5   5   0   0
Terrell             92  71  91  70  92 /   0   0   5   0   5
Corsicana           93  72  92  71  93 /   0   0   5   0   0
Temple              93  70  91  68  92 /   0   0   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       93  70  93  68  93 /   5   5  10   0   5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion