Cheek, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

010
FXUS64 KLCH 060525
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return today
  as moisture pools ahead of a cold front that will push through
  the region early Sunday.
- Slightly below normal temperatures, especially night time lows,
  and noticeably drier air is expected in the wake of the front
  early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The main story in the short term will be a cold front located
currently over northeast Texas int southwest Arkansans will gradually
push south into and through the forecast area over the weekend that
will bring much drier and cooler conditions by the end of the period.
For today, moisture will be increasing ahead of a pre-frontal trough
and outflow boundary with PWAT values between 1.80 and 2 inches with
mean layer relative humidity above 70 percent. Therefore, initial
band of showers is expected right around daybreak for central
Louisiana and upper southeast Texas, then scattered showers and
thunderstorms reforming in the afternoon with low level convergence
and daytime heating.
The cold front is expected to move through and into the coastal
waters early Sunday morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms
continuing until later in the afternoon when the significantly drier
air begins to filter in.
This should leave a nice Monday with frontal boundary offshore.
Drier air will mean less humid conditions and no chance for
significant shower activity.
Rua
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The long term looks like it will be dominated by a series of high
pressure systems ridging down from the north, with mainly dry
northwest flow aloft. Therefore, dry conditions are expected with
very little if any chance for significant shower activity.
The drier air will also help bring about the potential for some
below climatological normal temperatures, especially during the
night for lows, and less humid conditions during the daytime.
Looks like the "coolest" temperatures will start off the period on
Tuesday morning with NBM showing lows in the upper 50s for central
Louisiana and low to mid 60s down to the I-10 corridor. It should be
noted that the deterministic NBM temperatures during that morning
are at or below the 25th percentile of the ensemble whisker plot.
However, there is support from both the GFS and ECMWF MOS to see low
temperatures at those values so will keep on with the NBM lows.
Rua
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A band of showers and thunderstorms near a frontal boundary across
northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana is expected to push
southward toward the forecast area overnight. Guidance shows that
the activity will weaken as it reaches KAEX, so at this point will
just go with VCSH and MVFR ceilings from low clouds by 06/11z with
a PROB30 group until 06/17z.
Moisture will increase over the area as the surface front enters the
forecast area, to go along with daytime heating, that scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to form after 06/18z.
Will place VCTS at all terminals to account for this.
Rua
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
light onshore flow and low seas will continue today until a cold
front moves through the coastal waters tonight. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will also increase ahead of the front. A modest
offshore flow will occur behind the front into Sunday. Offshore
winds along with seas will be increasing on Monday as high pressure
builds down from the Midwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Moisture will increase today ahead of a cold front that will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms into Sunday. Afternoon minimum
relative humidity are expected to be near or above 60 percent today
and near or above 50 percent on Sunday. Significantly drier air will
move in by Monday, ending rain chances and bringing afternoon
minimum relative humidity values below 40 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  66  85  62 /  40  10  10   0
LCH  90  72  88  69 /  30  10  20  10
LFT  90  71  89  67 /  20  10  10  10
BPT  91  72  88  69 /  30  20  40  20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion