Chloride, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

202
FXUS64 KEPZ 061121
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
521 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 503 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
- Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal through the
   week.
- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of
   the week, favoring northern areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1016 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Positively tilted trough continues from central Canada down
across the Great Basin to central California. This has allowed a
rather persistent dry, southwest flow over the CWA for several
days. Models do continue to show moisture advection beginning
Monday night and more in earnest Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurricane
Priscilla, thought not sharing any moisture with us (yet) is
helping the upper pattern by allowing sub-tropical high to build
back over northern Mexico. This will allow mid-level (700-500 mb)
flow to turn more south/southeast and bring moisture in. At the
surface the east/southeast flow brings a dry (wet) line in, again
somewhat on Monday night but more significantly on Tuesday. Thus a
few showers/thunderstorms could break out east of the RG Valley
late Monday afternoon and evening. Some of the CAMS models show
this solution. Grids are starting to reflect this, though future
shifts might want to increase this. Expect some POPs through
Wednesday night.
Thursday and Friday...sub-tropical high continues building west
and centering over west Texas by later Thursday into Friday. This
should help push the main moisture plume north and west of the
CWA, allowing POPs to approach zero.
Saturday through Monday...the last short-wave or two out of the
positively tilted trough is able to bang into the Mexican high and
begin displacing it eastward some. Thus, the main moisture plume
migrates eastward back over the CWA, for increasing chances of
showers/thunderstorms. Some difference between GFS/ECMWF with
timing. ECMWF is earlier, suggesting rain could develop Saturday
afternoon while ending by early Tuesday morning. On the other hand
the slower GFS begins the rain out west Sunday afternoon and
spreading eastward later in the day, and lasting well past Monday.
GFS also more explicit than ECMWF in showing moisture from next
tropical system (Raymond) playing a role in our weather after
Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies this morning
will be SKC to FEW, with FEW to SCT CU development along and east
of the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Winds light and VRB this
morning, becoming southerly at 7-12 knots during the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 503 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Fire weather concerns are low with low fire weather danger. Moisture
will increase through the day from east to west with Min RH values
along and east of the RGV greater than 20 percent, above 40 percent
for Sacramento Mountains. Min RH values will be between 15 to 20
percent west of the RGV. Winds will be light and terrain driven through
the morning, becoming southerly at 7-15 mph during the afternoon.
Afternoon vent rates will range from good to very good across the
area.
Afternoon RH values will continue to increase through the week
with isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, favoring
the high terrain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  88  68  85 /  10  10  20  10
Sierra Blanca            60  84  59  80 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               63  84  62  82 /  10  10  20  10
Alamogordo               62  83  60  82 /  10  20  30  20
Cloudcroft               45  59  43  59 /  10  30  30  20
Truth or Consequences    58  81  59  78 /  10  20  30  20
Silver City              55  79  56  75 /   0  10  20  20
Deming                   61  88  63  84 /  10  10  20  20
Lordsburg                60  85  64  83 /   0  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro       69  86  68  83 /  10  10  20  10
Dell City                63  85  62  82 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             68  90  67  87 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               62  79  60  76 /  10  10  20  10
Fabens                   68  88  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             66  85  66  82 /  10  10  20  10
White Sands HQ           66  84  64  82 /  10  20  20  20
Jornada Range            63  83  62  81 /  10  20  30  20
Hatch                    62  86  63  83 /  10  20  30  20
Columbus                 64  88  66  85 /  10  10  20  10
Orogrande                63  81  61  80 /  10  10  20  10
Mayhill                  50  67  49  68 /  10  30  30  30
Mescalero                50  71  48  71 /  20  30  40  30
Timberon                 50  67  47  68 /  10  20  30  20
Winston                  48  75  50  72 /  10  20  30  30
Hillsboro                57  82  56  78 /  10  20  30  20
Spaceport                59  82  59  80 /  10  20  30  20
Lake Roberts             49  79  52  75 /  10  20  30  30
Hurley                   55  81  57  77 /   0  10  20  20
Cliff                    55  86  59  83 /   0  10  20  20
Mule Creek               50  83  55  80 /   0  10  10  20
Faywood                  58  80  58  77 /  10  20  20  20
Animas                   60  87  63  84 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                  60  85  63  83 /   0  10  20  10
Antelope Wells           60  87  61  84 /   0  10  10  10
Cloverdale               60  82  60  80 /   0  10  10  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion