286 FXUS63 KPAH 131107 AFDPAHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 607 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend into much of next week. Highs in the mid to upper 90s are expected through Wednesday before cooling into the 80s to lower 90s by late week.
- Outside of isolated showers or storms today and Sunday, most of the region remains dry trough much of next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Quiet conditions are observed across the region this morning with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s and mostly clear skies. Aloft, a mid and upper level ridge axis extends across the plains with troughing across the east coast and intermountain west. The upper level pattern remains largely unchanged through the rest of the weekend with the ridge axis pushing just a bit eastward today before weakening slightly on Sunday. Hot conditions can be expected today and on Sunday as highs rise into the 90s, with the warmest readings in southeast Missouri where highs reach the upper 90s. CAMs develop a few isolated showers or storms beneath the ridge axis this afternoon mainly in portions of southeast Missouri. Additional develop of showers and storms take place this evening to our north. This isolated activity may work its way into portions of southwest Indiana and southern Illinois tonight.
The omega block carries through early part of the week with generally hot and dry weather conditions each day through Wednesday. Highs in the mid 90s are favored which is several degrees above normal. The ongoing dry soil conditions and deeply mixed boundary layer generally keeps dewpoints low, with apparent temperatures nearly identical to ambient temperatures. By mid to late week, an upper trough digs into the upper plains breaking down the downstream ridging. This favors cooler temperatures by late week and into the weekend with the possibility of isolated to scattered showers or storms with the NBM showing slight chance to chance PoPs by Thursday night into Friday.
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.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR will continue for the TAF period. Winds will increase from the southwest up to 5-6 knots this afternoon becoming light and variable tonight. FEW-SCT CU with bases 7-8 kft are expected this afternoon with high level bases overnight.
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.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...AD
NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion