Chumstick, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

142
FXUS66 KOTX 082335
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
435 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms Monday, expanding
  across the region Tuesday through Thursday.
- Areas of smoke and haze through the week, especially near
  wildfires.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region will
increase Tuesday through Thursday. While some areas have seen an
improvement in air quality, areas of smoke and haze is expected
to continue through the week, especially near wildfires.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday: A low pressure system off the southern
OR/northern CA coast will slowly move east, moving into northern
CA Tuesday and Wednesday. South to southeast flow ahead of this
low will continue to draw up increased mid level moisture and
instability. For this afternoon there isn`t much forcing to kick
off convection outside of the mountains. In the mountains
surface based CAPE near 500 J/KG, and PWAT`s 150% of normal has
already kicked off isolated thunderstorms which will continue
into the early evening before the lower atmosphere stabilizes.
Overnight into Tuesday a mid level wave will bring a broader
potential for showers and thunderstorms over Central and NE
Washington into the ID Panhandle. Stronger storms will be
capable of producing gusts up to 40 MPH and small hail.
Additional waves move up from the south Tuesday Night through
Thursday for continued scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Storms may begin to put down heavier rainfall as well by
Thursday, as precipitable water increases to 150-200% of
normal. Burn scars will have to be monitored for heavy rain with
the northern mountains and ID Panhandle areas of highest
concern. On Friday the low begins to shift east of the area, but
plenty of residual moisture and instability lingers. The focus
may become more focused over the mountains.
Saturday through Monday: As the low exits the flow aloft remains
weak before potentially another wave approaches. With no strong
front to scrub out the lower level moisture, precipitable water
remains high. This will lead to continued daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. Could see some
valley shower/thunderstorm activity as well depending on the
strength of any mid level waves tracking through, but this
detail carries lower confidence several days out.
Smoke and Haze: Several active wildfires remain due to lack of
wetting rains for the area. This fires will continue to actively
produce smoke until significant rains occur. Today air quality
agencies ended the Air Quality Alert and Advisories for several
counties where air quality has improved. The Air Quality Alert
remains in place for Chelan, Douglas, Grant, Ferry, Stevens, and
Pend Oreille counties as well as the Kootenai Reservation.  JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers and thunderstorms will move through this
afternoon and evening, though for all TAF sites but MWH-EAT,
there is less than a 30 percent chance. For GEG- SFF- COE,
there is a chance of showers from 12-20Z. For PUW-LWS, there are
a chance of rain showers from 02-18Z, with a chance for a
couple embedded thunderstorms. There is a chance for some
outflow winds around 20kts from 02-05Z. For 08-18Z, MWH-EAT will
see showers, with a 30 percent chance for some embedded
thunderstorms from 13-18Z for MWH and from 18-21Z for EAT.
Ceilings will stay at VFR for the forecast period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in scattered showers through the afternoon and
evening. Moderate confidence in wind gusts from an incoming
outflow boundary impacting PUW-LWS from 02-05Z. Low confidence
in seeing temporary gusty winds at GEG-SFF-COE from this outflow
boundary. Moderate confidence off thunderstorms in MWH and EAT,
which is reflected in TAFs, but low confidence in embedded
thunderstorms impacting other TAF sites. /AS
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        57  83  57  82  57  75 /  10  40  20  20  50  40
Coeur d`Alene  57  85  57  83  58  76 /   0  40  30  30  50  50
Pullman        51  78  52  76  52  70 /  20  30  40  40  70  50
Lewiston       61  84  62  82  61  77 /  20  30  40  50  70  60
Colville       47  84  47  83  47  78 /  10  40  20  30  40  50
Sandpoint      52  83  52  81  53  75 /  10  40  30  40  60  60
Kellogg        58  83  58  80  58  72 /  20  40  40  40  70  60
Moses Lake     57  80  56  82  57  77 /  20  60  20  40  30  50
Wenatchee      62  79  61  82  62  79 /  30  60  30  40  30  40
Omak           60  85  58  86  60  83 /  20  50  20  20  20  30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan
County- Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
Wenatchee Area- Western Chelan County.
ID...Air Quality Alert for Northern Panhandle.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion