Cimarron, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

900
FXUS63 KDDC 200529
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A small complex of storms tonight is possible, some strong
- Highest pops Saturday across the eastern zones
- Another round of storms Monday/Tuesday, followed by cooler temps
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Another small complex of storms (MCS) is possible, mainly across central
Kansas this evening. It is not totally clear if storms will form or
not. Some of the CAMs have strong thunderstorms, while other CAMs
do not show much of anything developing. Areal coverage should be
not that great in considering the CAMs that do show storm development.
There is a risk of 1 out of 5, so cannot rule out a strong thunderstorm.
Marginally severe wind and hail reports would be the main threats.
Overall coverage to remain on the more isolated side. Brief heavy
rainfall is also possible. Our 12Z RAOB PWAT of 0.66" is down from
0.97" last night, so do not anticipate any major water issues. Otherwise,
the rest of the FA will remain dry. Lows tonight will be in the mix
of 50s northeast to 60s southeast.
An upper level wave that is driving the storm development will continue
to move east and southeast Saturday. As such, an area of shift of
POPs is expected across the forecast domain. Have the highest pops
(50%) across the eastern zones with POPs diminishing in numerical
value farther west. Far western Kansas along the Colorado border
should remain dry for the beginning of the weekend. Otherwise, not
too warm highs with values in the lower 80s across expected across
the FA. Lows in the mix of 50s to 60s for Sunday morning.
Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast shortwave ridging for Sunday. This
would support the notion of a drier forecast across southwest Kansas.
Highs will continue to remain well into the 80s. Lows still in the
mix of 50s northwest to 60s southeast. Pops will remain silent per
the latest NBM solution.
Attention then turns to Monday evening into Tuesday. Both the deterministic
models as well as some of their ensemble counterparts indicate a
fropa late Monday evening. This would reintroduce storm chances across
the FA per the NBM solution. In addition, cooler highs (70s) looks
likely in the wake of the storm system during the middle portion
of the business week. Will have to watch lows for the far western
counties, as they may dip down into the 40s. It would be 50s for
the rest of the FA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Clusters of thunderstorms were moving away from southwest and
west central Kansas at the onset of this TAF period, and we will
be watching for the development of low stratus overnight/early
Saturday morning. We expect IFR/LIFR stratus and fog to develop
across mainly far western Kansas, but probability of LIFR and FG
is too low at GCK, DDC, HYS, or LBL to include in the TAF. We
will watch for GCK especially, as the GCK airport will be
closest to lowest ceiling and visibility, particularly in the
09-14Z time frame. Amendments may be needed based on
observation and satellite trends. Any LIFR/IFR/MVFR flight
category in the morning is expected to become VFR by late
morning/midday Saturday.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion