Clarks, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

418
FXUS63 KGID 211813
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
113 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms become likely again Monday evening
  into Monday night. Some of these storms could be severe with
  hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts near 60 MPH.
- Off and on rain and a few thunderstorms continue Tuesday and
  Tuesday night. Severe weather is unlikely
- A few t-storms could linger into Wednesday morning, but dry
  conditions are expected for the rest of the week and into the
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue
to push across the area this morning. The highest coverage is
expected to be over northern KS, but a few showers and storms
could bleed northward into Nebraska as well. Models now show
this activity lingering a bit longer...possibly to around noon
or shortly thereafter. Instability and shear are not supportive
for these storms to become strong or severe.
This afternoon, storms are expected to redevelop to our south
and east. Although it could be JUST barely to our east if the
recent runs of the HRRR are to be believed. Light south winds
and clearing skies should allow temperatures to reach the upper
70s and low 80s (near normal for late September).
Monday will trend a few degrees warmer than today, ahead of an
approaching upper low. A few storms could develop as early as
Monday afternoon, but better coverage is not expected to arrive
until later into the evening or overnight as the upper system
and associated surface front push into the area. Convective
parameters are favorable for at least some marginally severe
storms, but there is still quite a bit of spread on the CAMs
regarding location. Therefore the entire area remains in a
Marginal Risk.
The severe risk falls off on Tuesday, but periods of rain and
thunderstorms continue as the surface low slowly traverses the
region. For many areas (especially the southern half of the
area), it could be a very rainy day. Multiple rounds of rain
could lead to minor flooding, but that will be somewhat
dependent on whatever rainfall falls with the storms Monday
night. The latest NBM and global ensembles highlight a 40-60%
chance for 1"+ of rain for areas near and south of Highway 6.
Localized rain amounts almost certainly will be higher than
that.
Coverage of rain (and some lingering weak t-storms) gradually
pushes southward Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry
conditions are then favored through the rest of the week. After
a cooldown Tuesday/Wednesday temperatures also gradually trend
warmer through the end of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through the majority
of the period, and high confidence in dry/thunderstorm-free
conditions throughout (although suppose a rogue sprinkle cannot
be completely ruled out mid-late Monday AM). By far the main
challenge/question mark is whether or not at least patchy fog
and/or low stratus develops within the area early Monday
morning. Unfortunately, there is currently very little
confidence in how this plays out.
Winds will not be a significant issue, with sustained speeds
the majority of the period 6-11KT and any gusts mainly at-or-
below 16KT (and mainly right away this afternoon). Direction
will be fairly consistent/southerly, although KGRI will briefly
start off early this afternoon with a more west-southwesterly
component.
- Ceiling/visibility details/uncertainty:
Right out of the gate this afternoon, skies are mainly clear
over both KGRI/KEAR. There is at least some chance that
scattered MVFR-level clouds could develop with afternoon
heating, so have "hinted" at this with "FEW020 SCT035". However,
the real question marks arrive Monday morning mainly 09-15Z as
some higher-res model data suggests that at least patchy low
stratus/shallow fog will develop over the area, while
traditional numerical guidance sets are much less
suggestive...possibly due to boundary layer mixing/surface
breezes being JUST strong enough to keep it at bay. Needless to
say, the realm of possibilities for KGRI/KEAR range from
outright-VFR to perhaps at least brief IFR/LIFR. Given the
considerably uncertainty, and also given that these concerns are
beyond the first 12 hours, will simply "hint" at fog/stratus
potential fog/low stratus for now with "6SM BR SCT015" groups.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion