Clayton, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

757
FXUS63 KDTX 081829
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
229 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather expected through Friday.
- Temperatures climb above normal by Wednesday, persisting into the
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Expansive surface ridge persists today, becoming more diffuse as it
centers over the eastern Great Lakes as the 925-850 mb anticyclone
moves from the Ohio Valley into central Appalachia. This initiates a
southerly wind shift creating a weak return flow regime. Seasonably
cool again today with highs near 70F, followed by another chilly and
cloud-free night as lows plunge into the 40s. Static stability holds
Tuesday with zonal split-flow aloft, but surface winds should
increase slightly and veer southwesterly. This provides weak warm
advection, which lifts MaxTs by around 5 degrees (Fahrenheit). The
dry stretch continues into Wednesday, even as a weak mid-level
shortwave trough slides across Lower Michigan. This passing wave
transits with little fanfare given a lack of meaningful saturation,
marked by surface dewpoints barely in 50s. Mid-level clouds should
eventually fill in, but a very dry boundary-layer and poor lapse
rates preclude any mention of precipitation. Further moderation in
thermodynamic profiles helps temperatures break above climatological
normals, into the upper 70s. A longwave ridge axis over central
CONUS amplifies Wednesday night into Thursday as an embedded
shortwave ridge propagates into the Great Lakes, dislodging the
trough. This preserves the warmer than normal pattern as 850 mb
temperatures climb into the double digits (Celsius), leading to
renewed highs above 80F. 1029 mb surface high pressure then centers
over Ontario resulting in weak easterly flow for Southeast Michigan.
The synoptic ridge quickly flattens over the weekend as a compact
cut-off low drifts south across Ontario and eventually settles over
the local area. There will be some opportunities for showers as
medium-range solutions suggest this system could become stationary
over the region for a few days.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure drifts towards the Northeastern US tonight setting up
uniform southerly flow over the central/southern Great Lakes. A weak
cold front sliding over Lake Superior tightens the gradient daytime
Tuesday, particularly over the northern half of Lake Huron, allowing
winds to increase towards 15-20kts. This front largely washes out as
the parent low moves into Quebec as high pressure re-expands across
the region for the latter half of the week bringing another extended
period of generally lighter winds and dry weather.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
AVIATION...
High pressure extending across the eastern Great Lakes will maintain
its influence across Se Mi through the TAF period. Subtle moisture
influence off the lakes will support FEW to SCT VFR based afternoon
cu across mainly the eastern portions of Se Mi. Otherwise, light
south-southeast winds will prevail through the TAF period.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....SC
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion