Cloverdale, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS61 KRNK 281923
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
323 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather looks to continue for much of Monday. However, some
moisture being pulled north by Tropical Storm Imelda looks to
push into the Piedmont late on Monday. This will bring chances
for light to moderate rain showers to these areas through
Tuesday evening. High pressure overtakes the area by early
Wednesday morning ending rain chances through the remainder of
the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) Light rain showers starting late Monday for the VA and NC
   Piedmonts.
2) Patchy fog is again expected for much of the area Monday
   morning.
Upper level vorticity left behind the strung out cut off low is
expected to interact with moisture and convection being pulled
north from TD9/potential Imelda on Monday. This will lead to
bands of light to moderate rainfall being isentropically lifted
over the wedge that has built in over the Mid-Atlantic states
today thanks to surface high pressure moving into New York by
tonight. These wedge conditions will lead to cool northeast
flow at the surface areawide. This flow looks to undercut the
warm tropical airmass being pulled north by TD9/potential
Imelda. This will lead to the aforementioned light to moderate
rain showers; however, with cooler temperatures at the surface
it will likely be a more stratiform rain compared to a
convective rain. Overall, with the track of TD9/potential Imelda
now expected to take an easterly turn sooner, the rain chances
and totals forecast across the area have considerably dropped
off. While conditions look to remain cloudy most of Monday,
temperatures will struggle to reach into the low to mid 70s for
much of the area. This will be especially true given lows Monday
morning forecast in the mid to upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge,
and low 60s east of the Blue Ridge.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) Some tropical moisture remains in the area through late Tuesday.
2) High pressure builds in on Wednesday.
3) Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal.
As Tropical Depression Nine strengthens into a tropical storm, it
will begin to advect moisture over a stalled frontal boundary along
the East Coast. This moisture will be driven northwestward and into
our area, aided by the lift from the frontal boundary. While rain
chances have decreased since yesterday, enough moisture will be
present for scattered showers to be expected Monday night through
most of the day on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, as TD9 turns east and
away from the CONUS, the moisture will also pull back east, with any
rain ending Tuesday night. Winds will remain elevated through the
period, despite TD9 staying well off to the south. A tight pressure
gradient will allow NE winds of 5-10 mph each afternoon, with gusts
of 15-20+ mph possible. High pressure then begins to build into the
area, with drier air aloft suppressing convection with no rain
expected through the end of the period.
Rain totals will remain modest around the area, with areas west of
the Blue Ridge likely only picking up less than 0.25", with some
areas possibly receiving no rainfall. For the Piedmont and along the
Blue Ridge, around 0.25-0.50" is expected, with pockets up to an
inch possible. Locally higher amounts could occur if enough moisture
advection occurs, but this is looking less likely. A marginal risk
for excessive rainfall is still issued, but now for only the NC
Piedmont area. No severe weather is expected.
With increased cloud cover on Tuesday, temperatures will remain near
to below normal, with highs in the 60s for the mountains and low 70s
for the Piedmont. As skies clear for Wednesday, temperatures rise a
few degrees, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s, though the
highest elevations stay in the upper 60s. Overnight lows will change
drastically through the period, with mild temperatures around 60
degrees Tuesday morning, before lowering into the 50s Wednesday
morning, and down into the 40s for Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) Tranquil fall weather remains over the area through the period.
2) Cool temperatures late week moderate back to slightly above
normal by late weekend.
A large and strong high pressure system that will be centered over
the Northeastern US into Southeastern Canada is expected to be the
dominant synoptic feature across the Mid-Atlantic Region late this
week. The high will wedge down east of the Appalachians and keep
cool, dry weather in place through Saturday. Winds will remain
elevated, with gusts of 15-20 mph possible at times thanks to the
pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the
tropical systems offshore in the Atlantic. The high remains dominant
through Sunday, when the high pressure weakens. However, models
differ on whether the high moves east out into the Atlantic, or
remains in place over our area. Regardless, no rain chances are
expected through late Sunday when a slight chance of rain returns
with PoPs around 15%.
Temperatures remain cool late week, with highs mainly in the 60s due
to the wedge in place. By the weekend, the wedge weakens and slowly
erodes, with highs returning into the 70s area-wide. Lows will be
chilly, in the 40s, with the highest elevations dipping down into
the upper 30s. Wind chills Friday morning could fall into the low to
mid 30s in the mountains. By Sunday morning, lows will moderate into
the 40s/50s.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
Some MVFR CIGs are lingering at ROA this afternoon; however,
these restrictions will likely not last through the remainder of
the evening, with VFR conditions expected to return by the mid
afternoon. Once ROA transitions to VFR, all terminals look to
remain VFR through the remainder of today, with MVFR to IFR
restrictions expected to develop at all terminals once again
during the overnight hours. Gradual improvements are expected
for LWB and BLF; however, all other terminals look to remain
under MVFR CIGs through the end of the taf period as clouds push
in from the south thanks to TD9/potential Imelda.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Rain looks to continue on Tuesday as easterly flow brings
moisture back into the area from the Atlantic Coast; however it
looks to end by Tuesday evening. Occasional sub-VFR is
possible, especially Monday night and Tuesday night when waves
of light to moderate showers push through the region. Expecting
VFR Wed- Sat, except for patchy morning fog.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion