Coconut Creek, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

910
FXUS62 KMFL 201727
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
127 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Model and synoptic analyses depict two high pressure centers
lingering over the Gulf coast and the E CONUS, while a decaying
frontal boundary and attendant low still lingers over the west
Atlantic and the Bahamas. Meanwhile, drier air keeps entraining at
the mid levels across the state, along with model/sounding PWATs
dropping to around 1.2 inches in general across much of the
peninsula. This synoptic scenario will translate into lesser chances
of rain for the rest of today, with a gradient of POPs from 20 to 40
percent north-to-south. Highest chances remain over the southern tip
of the peninsula where the best pool of moisture resides.
The high pressure cells will keep SoFlo under a generally N to NE
moderate flow through the rest of the weekend, which will also help
in keeping higher chances of showers over the eastern half of SoFlo.
The drier air aloft and the lack of dynamic support will keep
thunderstorm chances to a minimum, but a couple of thunderstorms
near the Atlantic coast are certainly possible, especially later in
the afternoon or early evening.
By Sunday, high-res solutions and ensembles agree in having the
aforementioned front slowly backtracking into extreme SoFlo,
dragging some additional moisture into the area. Thus, POps for
Sunday afternoon will modestly increase into the 30-50 percent
range, with best chances south of I-75. Coverage should also spread
across much of SoFlo as the high pressure ridge to the north
migrates closer to the Atlantic seaboard and shifts winds to a more
easterly flow. But even so, shower and thunderstorm activity will
likely be just slightly higher than today`s.
Warm temps continue across SoFlo with afternoon highs generally
around 90 degrees today and Sunday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
An overall pleasant day is expected today as north-northeast surface
flow prevails and reinforces the drier air mass currently in place.
PWATs were observed as 1.88 inches on the 00Z sounding last evening,
and global models depict potentially even lower values (1.2-1.4
inches) across interior South Florida. Mainly sunny and dry
conditions should prevail overall today, although a few coastal
showers may be possible during the morning hours today, and a couple
isolated showers or storms may develop towards the early evening
hours.
A little more moisture is able to work into the area from the south
heading into Sunday afternoon, which may provide enough juice for
slightly higher coverage of showers and storms on Sunday afternoon,
although rain chances will still remain below average in the 30-40%
range. Most of the day should be mostly sunny with showers and
storms bubbling up during the mid-afternoon time period mainly
across inland areas as surface flow veers more easterly. Minimal
impacts expected to metro areas besides slightly higher cloud cover
during the afternoon and evening compared to the morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
An upper level trough near the Great Lakes is forecast to slowly
extend southward towards the southeastern US early next week. By mid
to late week, the trough transitions into a cutoff low across the
central US where it will slowly drift towards the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley areas. This could lead to a weak boundary stalled across
central Florida and potentially facilitate additional moisture
across South Florida through the week. PWATs will rise back into the
2.0-2.2 inch range by Monday afternoon which is more typical for
this time of year. East-northeast flow will prevail across South
Florida through this time period which will give the east coast
breeze the upper hand in dominating convective initiation, and
will keep the area of maximum rain chances across interior and
Southwest Florida each afternoon. Partly sunny conditions prevail
during the morning hours with shower and thunderstorm development
expected across interior areas during the each afternoon as sea
breezes push inland and we reach maximum daytime heating. Slightly
drier air might move into the region towards the end of the week
as the boundary has the potential to pass south of the area. This
could drop rain chances for Friday into the upcoming weekend.
High temperatures through the period will reach the lower 90s with
overnight lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
While VFR should prevail this afternoon, brief periods of MVFR/IFR
are still possible with passing Atlantic showers, mainly over the
east coast terminals. A northeasterly wind in the 8-12 kt range
prevails through 01Z, then decreasing to around 6-8 kt later
tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A moderate east-northeasterly breeze will continue today. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 3 feet
while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 1 to 2 feet. Despite
lower rain chances this weekend, a few showers and storms may
develop across local waters. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds
will be possible near the most robust shower and thunderstorm
activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  89  78  89 /  30  50  40  60
West Kendall     76  89  76  89 /  30  60  40  70
Opa-Locka        77  90  77  89 /  30  50  30  60
Homestead        76  88  76  88 /  30  60  50  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  88  78  88 /  30  60  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  78  89 /  30  50  40  60
Pembroke Pines   78  90  78  91 /  30  50  30  60
West Palm Beach  77  88  77  88 /  20  40  30  60
Boca Raton       77  90  77  89 /  30  50  40  60
Naples           75  92  76  90 /  10  30  10  60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
UPDATE/AVIATION...17

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion