Concord, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

832
FXUS64 KBMX 271059
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
559 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025
- Cooler today. Back to above normal temperatures Sunday through
   Tuesday.
- Medium chance for areas of patchy dense fog across the east
   half of Central Alabama through early morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025
A cold front is to our east and south, with some wrap around
moisture in place. This will allow or patchy to dense fog to
develop around sunrise. Will continue to monitor for any dense fog
advisories that may be needed. Also with the moisture still in
place, we will see a small chance at some isolated showers/storms
in the eastern half of the area this afternoon. After sunset much
if not all of the activity will dissipate. Look for only slim
isolated pockets of fog into Sunday morning, depending on exact
locations of any rain today. For Sunday, the moisture tries to
exit to the east, but can not rule out an isolated shower/storm in
the southeast/east just too low to include in the weather at this
time. We will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday with slightly
above normal temperatures, especially in the west.
16
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025
The extended remains complicated as the tropical mischief
continues to develop in the Atlantic. I was hoping the models
would be in a little better agreement tonight, but they are not.
In fact they are showing a bigger disagreement now than yesterday.
The majority of the solutions try to work the easterly fetch into
the area, so I still think we will eventually see an increase in
PoPs by Wednesday into Thursday, but the overall coverage is
uncertain. They both bring at least a piece of energy into the
southeast (wedge/inverted trough) over the area. Still alot of
time for numerous factors to change, so stay alert to changes
through the period.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025
Conditions have deteriorated at ASN/ MGM and AUO this past hour as
expected with LIFR conditions. Conditions should improve to VFR
between 13-15z. Drier air will move in behind a front today with
Northwest to Northerly winds 5-8 knots during the afternoon with
mixing. Can not rule out an isolated shower/storm at ASN/MGM/AUO.
Any activity should diminish by 00z. Did not include in the TAFs
due to low probabilities.
16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will generally range in the 40-50% range through next
week, with little to no rain currently in the forecast. There is
still plenty of uncertainty, but widespread rain could return to the
forecast by Wednesday, depending on the tropics. Until guidance
starts to get a better handle on this scenario, the forecast will
remain dry, with drought conditions remaining across the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  61  86  64 /  20  10   0   0
Anniston    84  63  86  65 /  20  10  10   0
Birmingham  85  64  88  66 /  20  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  87  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      87  64  89  66 /  10  10   0   0
Auburn      85  65  86  67 /  20  10  10   0
Montgomery  86  65  88  66 /  10  10  10   0
Troy        85  63  86  64 /  10  10  10   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion