Concord, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

895
FXUS64 KLZK 250552
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1252 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
-Some flash flood threat continues into the overnight hours
-A strong/briefly severe thunderstorm remains possible overnight into
midday Wed...mainly across SRN/SERN sections
-Drier and calmer conditions expected late this week into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Scattered convection is continuing late this Tue evening as
SHRA/TSRA activity fires along/just behind an outflow dropping south
across central to SRN sections of the state. The primary cold front
is situated over far NWRN AR into ERN OK...which is slowly
progressing SE. Some SVR threat remains late this evening and
potentially into the overnight hrs...primarily where best overlap of
ML CAPE and bulk SHR exists over SWRN sections ahead of the initial
convection. Over time however...this instability has been weakening.
Even so...SRN/SERN sections will still see some potential for a
strong/SVR storm overnight.
The threat for heavy rainfall remains however as the convection
behind the initial convective line moves back over some areas that
have already seen very heavy rainfall recently. This activity was
becoming more widespread along/ahead of the slowly SEWD progressing
cold front across WRN sections. Eventually...the front will allow
colder/more stable air to start pushing this convection further
E/SE...but will have to pay close attention to the flash flood
threat across WRN sections...especially where very heavy rainfall
has already been seen recently.
By the daylight hrs Wed morning...the cold front will start to gain
SEWD momentum an the upper level disturbance drops SE into the
state...eventually pushing the organized convection further SE
during the daytime hrs Wed. Some strong to briefly SVR convection
may be seen ahead of the front across SERN sections early...at least
until the main surge of the front drops SE by around midday. There
may still be a heavy rain threat...especially right before the front
pushes through. However...the SRN portion of the state has remained
fairly dry relative to other areas of the state recently...so it may
take a bit more rainfall to cause some significant issues flooding
wise. May cancel the Flood Watch by sunrise Wed as well due to the
threat for widespread heavy rainfall decreasing in the watch area.
Precip chances will continue behind the front...under the main upper
shortwave that will slowly drop SE Wed into Thu...before finally
shifting east by late this week. This upper shortwave looks to break
off from the main upper flow...developing into a closed upper low to
the east of AR. With AR being on the west side of this upper
low...NRLY flow aloft will be seen over AR late this week through
the weekend. This will keep the forecast mainly dry...though temps
look to warm back above normal into the early part of next week as
an upper ridge starts moving back over the region near the end of
the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Showery activity across northern Arkansas has now shifted east of
the nearby terminals, so all terminals are anticipated to be clear
of any precipitation through the overnight period, although there
may be some low chances that redevelopment could reach mainly the
northern terminals. The main aviation impact through the overnight
is going to be low ceilings and visibilities as low level
moisture remains across the region. Thus, introduced various MVFR
to IFR conditions with TEMPO`s of worsening conditions during the
10-14z timeframe. Conditions shoudl then trend to VFR conditions
by late morning at all terminals. Isolated to scattered convection
mainly during the afternoon hours will again bring some
possibilities of brief lowerings of ceilings and visibilities
before clearing out going into the evening hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  57  82  55 /  30   0   0   0
Camden AR         81  59  83  55 /  20  10   0   0
Harrison AR       76  54  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    80  59  82  55 /  20   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  78  61  81  60 /  30   0   0   0
Monticello AR     82  61  84  57 /  30  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      80  56  82  54 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  79  55  80  54 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        79  58  82  57 /  30   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     79  59  82  55 /  20  10   0   0
Russellville AR   81  59  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         80  59  83  56 /  30   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      78  60  81  56 /  30  10   0   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...77

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion