Conway, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

368
FXUS63 KAPX 122256
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
656 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing rain chances tonight across the north/west.
- Shower (maybe a thunderstorm) chances continue
  Saturday...ending late in the day.
- Late season warm spell for early next week...with temperatures
  likely increasing a degree or two each afternoon through
  Wednesday (record highs???...who knows).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Split flow pattern across North America
this Friday...with a Rex block across western North America (+2 to
+3 sigma 500mb standardized height anomalies across the Canadian
territories) and a northern branch short wave trough near Hudson
Bay. Southern branch flow across the CONUS consists of the trough
portion of the Rex block from the Canadian Rockies into
California...ridging spanning the Plains with above normal heights
poking into the upper Great Lakes...and a positive tilt short wave
trough along the east coast.  Good bit of low/mid level warm
advection ongoing from the central High Plains northeast into
northwest Ontario along with a plume of steeper lapse rates. Surface
high pressure over Quebec and ridging back into the Great
Lakes...broad low pressure over the northern/central Plains ahead of
western trough has a warm front extending southeast from the eastern
Dakotas into Missouri.
Upstream warm front makes a bit of progress northeast across Iowa
tonight...but warm advection will be increasing across the upper
Lakes along with deep layer moisture (+1 to +2 sigma precipitable
water anomalies).  This will be aided by a weak PV axis associated
with the northern branch flow that arrives from the north Saturday
morning...along with colder dynamic tropopause potential temperature
which will help weaken the stability profile.  Deep layer drier air
will begin to push in from the northwest later Saturday...along with
a cold front that should reach Lake Superior (probably in a
weakening state based on the evolution of the dynamic pattern) by
Saturday evening.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Increasing rain chances tonight across the north/west: Have already
had a few spits of rain across eastern Upper starting late morning
which looks like it was tied to an MCV that crossed Lake Superior.
Several clusters of convection ongoing across Minnesota within
low/mid level warm advection (and the cluster over the Minnesota
Arrowhead looks suspiciously like it`s being helped along by another
MCV).  Anticipate showers spreading southeast across eastern Upper
and the Tip of the Mitt counties later this evening...then maybe
another cluster overnight comes out of Wisconsin and toward
northwest Lower.  Indications are that these should be relative high
based showers...and its probable that areas closer to Saginaw Bay
won`t see much tonight.
Shower (maybe a thunderstorm) chances continue Saturday...ending
late in the day: Short wave trough arrives across Upper
Michigan by Saturday morning and crosses northern Lower by mid
afternoon. At the very least that should decrease stability and
may provide the best chance to see some thunder with this event.
Behind the short wave trough deep layer dry air gets advected
southward...so precipitation chances should end from north to
south starting late morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Days 2-3 (Sunday-Monday): Narrow full-latitude ridge advances into
the nation`s midsection Sunday as northern branch height falls spill
into New England and eventually offshore.  Ridge axis will cut right
across the region Monday; pretty substantial ridge amplitude by mid-
September standards...500mb heights in the 590dam vicinity which is
nearly a +2 sigma standardized height anomaly. Surface high will be
across eastern Ontario/Quebec Sunday...and expands into New England
for Monday.  This will provide an easterly component to the boundary
layer flow which should result in an east-west temperature gradient
both Sunday and Monday with temperatures influenced both by a long
trajectory over Lake Huron (cooler northeast Lower) and some
downsloping off the higher terrain into northwest Lower which will
have the highest probabilities for seeing highs at or above 80F
(especially Monday).  Normal highs for Sunday-Monday are in the 69-
73F range.
Days 4-5 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Large scale pattern over the eastern
CONUS gets a bit more muddled heading into midweek...looking
something akin to another Rex block but poorly organized.  But the
bottom line for the Great Lakes is that above normal heights will
probably continue...and may add a couple degrees to afternoon highs
each day which means more widespread highs in the 80s may be in the
offing.  Just FYI: Tuesday records range from 86 (ANJ) to 91 (TVC)
both set just last year...Wednesday records from 86 (GLR) to 92
(APN).  Too early to say if any of these are in jeopardy
(probabilities of exceeding 90F are minimal)...but with a few days
of drying the soil out and increasing the mixed layer depth a bit
more each day...you never know with these mid-late September warm
spells.
Days 6-7 Outlook (Thursday-Friday): 6-10 day outlook keeps high
probabilities for above normal temperatures firmly in place across
the region...but a lot of uncertainty as to when/how this pattern is
going to break down.  But given this uncertainty will probably end
up with low chance PoPs to end this forecast cycle.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Looking at VFR conditions through this evening under some
increasing high and mid level clouds. Weak disturbance will
likely drum up a few relatively high based and what should be non-
impactful showers across western taf locations overnight, with
the threat for any showers ending quickly Saturday morning. Will
likely see some more early morning MVFR to perhaps IFR
producing fog and mist. Will include tempo groups to account for
this possibility. Any fog/mist should mix out quickly after
sunrise. Light winds with local lake breeze development expected
Saturday afternoon.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MSB

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion