291 FXUS62 KTAE 171811 AFDTAEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 211 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through tomorrow with fairly light winds overhead. Enough dry air remains in place such that overnight lows should again fall into the low to mid 60s across inland areas with upper 60s to near 70 at the coast. Highs are forecast to rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat indices roughly the same as the ambient temperatures.
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.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
In general, mid level troughing is forecast to remain over the southeast US through the period. At the surface, fairly light easterly flow will very gradually bring moisture back over the area from the Atlantic. A tropical wave is forecast to hang out over the Bahamas over the weekend into early next week, and may cause winds to become a bit breezier locally. However, even with the gradual moisture return underway, our area is starting out so dry that rain chances won`t even begin to return to the area until Sunday into early next week.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions through the period, with the exception of brief MVFR in fog at VLD around sunrise Tuesday. Any -SHRA remain well north of terminals today.
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.MARINE... Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Light to gentle breezes over the marine zones are expected for the next several days. Winds will mainly be easterly for most of the waters, however our nearshore waters will shift southerly during the afternoons as the sea breeze develops and moves onshore. Light northerly winds from the land breeze can be expected for our nearshore waters along the Emerald Coast during the early morning hours. Seas will range from 1-3 feet through the week, leading to generally tranquil boating conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase late this weekend into the beginning of next week.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Dry and warm conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week, although moisture will begin to slowly increase over the area each day. Despite the slight moisture return, conditions will still be quite dry and will lead to further drying of fuels. Winds should remain fairly light and RH above critical thresholds, although very dry fuels could still lead to some fire weather concerns. &&
.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Very little rainfall is expected over the next several days. No flooding concerns are anticipated.
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.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 69 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 67 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 65 92 68 93 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 65 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 65 92 68 93 / 0 10 0 10 Apalachicola 70 86 72 87 / 0 0 0 0
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.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. &&
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NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...LF MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Montgomery
NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion