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Cottagegrove, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

856
FXUS61 KILN 221025
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 625 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS... Periodic rain and storms are expected through at least midweek, with daily opportunities for showers lingering into next weekend as well as a very wet pattern becomes established in the region. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the week, even with more clouds than sunshine.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A few SHRA will be possible locally before a large complex of SHRA/TSRA overspreads the local area from the W from mid morning and beyond.

Large-scale ascent due to more robust jet dynamics will overspread the area this morning into the afternoon amidst continued moisture advection and PWs trending in excess 175% of seasonal norms. With an uncapped environment and increasing deep-layer lift, a large complex of SHRA/TSRA will begin overspreading the area by mid morning through the afternoon, with a wet afternoon expected for most spots locally. Some embedded thunder is expected with the activity, although due to the poor midlevel and LL lapse rates, the overall potential for severe storms appears to be somewhat meager. Coverage of storms should be maximized during the afternoon through early evening. Pockets of gusty winds will certainly be possible in the strongest activity (especially if small linear/bowing segments are able to develop (favored in N/NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley)), but widespread /severe/ weather appears unlikely. Most locales will simply receive some much-needed rainfall (with heavy downpours leading to potential of an inch or more in some spots) along with some rumbles from time-to-time. But the rainy/stormy day today will certainly be a departure from the recent pattern of dry conditions and ample sunshine.

Highs today top out in the mid 70s in WC OH to mid 80s in the lower Scioto Valley and NE KY with expansive thick cloud cover and widespread pcpn prevailing by midday just about everywhere.

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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Widespread SHRA with embedded thunder will be ongoing across the area locally this evening, but the bulk of the large complex will move off to the E after sunset, with a trailing boundary back to the SW across the srn third of the local area. S/W energy will still be lingering back to the W of the local area in srn IN before moving into the ILN FA overnight. The maintenance of better jet energy across the srn part of the region should be enough to keep at least SCT activity going across the Tri- State into N KY and even the srn Miami Valley through midnight before decreasing in coverage late into the overnight toward daybreak Tuesday. The activity tonight (which should be focused near/S of the I-71 corridor) will be much slower moving as the steering-layer flow gradually decreases, particularly N of the OH Rvr. Additional heavy downpours will be possible in the strongest activity.

There may be a bit of a lull in the coverage of SHRA with embedded TS Tuesday morning into early afternoon, before daytime redevelopment likely focuses near/E of the I-71 corridor into central OH where the best lift will be maintained through the day. However, the daytime Tuesday is looking drier than will be the case today, even with ISO/SCT activity across the E/SE half of the local area by mid/late afternoon.

Temps bottom out in the lower to mid 60s tonight before rebounding to the upper 70s to around 80 by late Tuesday afternoon.

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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Positively tilted H5 trough remains stretched across much of the central and eastern CONUS, which is the primary driver of the unsettled weather pattern this week. Some scattered showers will continue to develop Tuesday night as this southwesterly flow regime ushers in a humid air mass, which is interacting with the upper level energy.

Spotty showers persist into Wednesday, but the orientation of this upper level trough modifies in which the mean trough axis becomes more N-S facing. In this process, the upper low deepens and strong PVA pivots through the Ohio Valley region. This increased forcing will lead to a decent slug of widespread rainfall Wednesday night. Numerous locations will observe at least 0.5", with some receiving 1" plus overnight.

Rain chances are expected to persist into Thursday and Friday as this longwave trough remains slow to propagate eastward, but overall QPF footprint will be much lower these days. By Friday, fewer locations will actually observe measurable rainfall, but clouds appear to hang around through most of the day, perhaps beginning to break apart in the evening. The ILN CWA will finally be on the western periphery of the trough axis, resulting in dry air advection. If this pattern stays true, this will result in a mostly dry forecast for next weekend.

Temperatures maintain the trend of staying near or just below seasonal normals throughout the forecast period.

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.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Any spotty SHRA through 15z should be spotty/disorganized, so impacts should be brief at any one location, if at all. This being said, there is the expectation for a large semi-cohesive band of SHRA with embedded TS to overspread the local area from the W beyond 15z, leading to prevailing widespread SHRA with embedded TS at each of the sites for most of the afternoon through early evening.

The main item of interest with the pcpn this afternoon is the likelihood for CIGs to go MVFR in the heaviest activity, with brief MVFR VSBY also possible. While CIGs may briefly return to VFR after the heaviest pcpn ends and the activity becomes more scattered in nature, CIGs will trend back to MVFR/IFR area-wide by/after 06z. SHRA may linger in parts of the area through the entirety of the overnight, but activity should become more ISO in coverage toward daybreak Tuesday. Some MVFR VSBYs may also develop late in the period due to BR.

SW winds near 5kts will increase to around 10kts by mid-morning, with brief higher gusts possible in the strongest storms. Winds will go more southerly at 5kts or less late in the period once again.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Thursday.

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.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.

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SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...KC

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion

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