Craft, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

600
FXUS64 KSHV 221743
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1243 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Showers and storms will continue north of I-30, spreading south
   into the day with additional sea breeze storms today and
   tomorrow.
- Rainfall chances will increase significantly areawide late Tuesday,
   continuing through much of Thursday. Cooler temperatures are
   expected, with a few strong storms possible.
- The end of the week and weekend look to remain dry and quiet, with
   a continuation of more seasonable temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Tonight`s upper level pattern features discernible troughing edging
its way eastward toward the Mississippi Valley, while a broad area
of ridging situated over the Desert Southwest is positioned just
right to establish northwest flow aloft over the ArkLaTex. This
pattern will make for an unsettled start to the week, with showers
and storms drifting east into the ArkLaTex, most likely bringing
impacts north of the I-30 corridor through the night and Monday
morning, spreading south into the afternoon, joined by emerging
storms from the south, most likely of the sea-breeze variety, fueled
by daytime heating and steered by southerly surface flow. Lows will
continue in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with highs in the upper 80s
to middle 90s.
A very similar pattern looks in store for Tuesday, with overnight
storms keeping to the north of I-30 and spreading south during the
day along with another round of sea breeze convection, as the
aforementioned troughing and ridging flatten out into a pseudozonal
flow aloft, due to the development of the feature which will be the
catalyst for an even wetter middle of the week and a break from
highs in the 90s.
That feature is a developing trough over the Pacific Northwest,
which will plunge south over the Rockies today and tomorrow, looking
to possibly form a closed low as it does so. Regardless, by
Wednesday, we will be looking at a massive trough with an extremely
positive tilt- to the extent that some solutions depict it oriented
almost "sideways" along an axis extending from the Front Range of
Colorado to the Great Lakes Region. The series of associated
convective features are currently poised to begin moving into the
ArkLaTex overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, with the highest rainfall
chances continuing through the day Wednesday, currently reflected in
Slight Risk areas for both flash flooding and severe weather, before
the system gradually pushes to the south and east and at last
clears out of the region by the end of the day Thursday.
However, the large scale upper level trough does not look to make
much eastward progress through the late week, even amplifying south
and west as a low forms over the ArkLaTex, breaks off from the
parent trough, and situates itself over the Deep South going into
the weekend, according to the latest GFS. This shouldn`t prolong our
rainfall chances, though. In fact, the forecast currently looks dry
from the end of this week through the weekend and into early the
following week. The low to our east will maintain northerly flow,
helping to keep temperatures more seasonable through to the end of
this extended forecast period.
/26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Low morning ceilings and vsbys have finally lifted early this
afternoon, resulting in MVFR/VFR ceilings. Expect ceilings to rise
a bit more through the afternoon and largely maintain VFR. The
exception will be within any convection/convective showers which
could pop up anywhere in the regional airspace. Estimating the
greatest chance to be around KLFK where sea breeze convection may
be able to advect far north enough to create aviation impacts.
Elsewhere will keep VCTS prevailing and amd as necessary. Winds
will be southerly through the entire TAF period, generally 8-12kts
during daytime hours and 5-8kts during overnight hours. Variable
and gusty winds should be expected within and nearest to
thunderstorms. Another round of low ceilings (IFR and low-end
MVFR) developing tonight/early Tuesday, lifting again mid-morning
Tuesday. Winds expected to remain elevated enough to largely limit
the lowering of vsbys in tandem with lowering ceilings. Any
terminal that experiences thunderstorms this afternoon has the
greatest potential for sub-VFR vsbys early Tuesday.
Kovacik
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Any weather
reports from spotters are still appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  94  76  86 /   0  10  40  80
MLU  71  95  74  88 /  10  20  20  90
DEQ  69  90  69  82 /  20  30  80  60
TXK  73  94  72  84 /  10  20  70  70
ELD  68  92  70  82 /  10  20  40  90
TYR  73  92  74  83 /   0  10  60  80
GGG  73  93  73  84 /   0  10  50  80
LFK  73  93  74  90 /   0  30  20  90
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...23

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion