Cuba, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

558
FXUS65 KABQ 202317 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
517 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 507 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- A backdoor cold front will bring fall-like temperatures to
  eastern New Mexico Tuesday and then spread westward into
  Wednesday.
- A Pacific system will approach from the west toward the end of
  the work week, bringing improved chances for showers and storms
  Friday and Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1046 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a Pacific dry air
intrusion from SoCal east through AZ and into NM. This will
continue into Sunday and PWATs are forecast to tumble today into
tonight. Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon
across the southern high terrain, but scattered storms are
forecast across Colfax and Union Counties where a threat for
strong to severe storms exists given 0-6km bulk shear of 40kts, a
weak surface boundary to provide additional forcing and sbCAPE
values of 1500 J/kg. This scenario is of relative higher
probability over Union County, where the SPC day 1 outlook shows a
marginal risk for severe storms. Convection will gradually wind-
down across far northeast NM through the evening hours with the
loss of daytime heating. Sunday is looking even less active with a
weak mid level ridge moving east over NM. Daytime temperatures
will warm a couple of degrees on Sunday relative to today and
generally be above average across central and eastern NM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1046 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The upper level ridge axis will shift east of NM Monday, clearing
the way for an upper level trough/low to drop southeast from the
Pacific NW into the central Rockies. PWATs are still forecast to
increase Monday as the upper level ridge axis shifts east and a
Pacific low deepens offshore of SoCal, steering Pacific moisture
into western NM. However, that signal isn`t as strong as what was
being advertised by the 12Z model solutions from yesterday. As a
result, our PoPs have trended down some Monday. We have increasing
forecast confidence on a backdoor cold front moving down the
eastern plains Monday night into Tuesday, then being reinforced
late Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper low over the central
Rockies ejects out over the central US plains. Both the latest NAM
and GFS show very little qpf over our area Tuesday as the ejecting
upper low steers drier air aloft over northern NM. The backdoor
front may interact with lingering moisture across southern NM on
Wednesday to produce showers and storms over the southern high
terrain, but otherwise Wednesday is looking more and more like a
down day. An upper level ridge will follow on Thursday and PWATs
will be back on the uptrend going into Friday as the Pacific low
moves from SoCal toward the lower Great Basin and Desert SW. This
Pacific low has the potential to be a weather maker for NM Fri/Sat
as the upper level ridge shifts east and PWATs surge in advance of
the approaching Pacific low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A few storms will persist across NE NM through early evening, and
may briefly become strong or severe with hail and gusty winds.
These storms should diminish by 01-02Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. A quiet night and Sunday expected. A few west to
northwesterly breezes will develop in the afternoon, much like
today.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1046 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. Some warming and drying of the atmosphere is
forecast through the weekend, with only isolated wetting storms
confined to far northeast NM and the southern high terrain. A
backdoor cold front will move down the eastern plains Tuesday and
spread west into central NM Wednesday, bringing temperatures down
to below average. A Pacific system will approach toward the end
of the week, bringing increased humidity and improved chances for
wetting rain on Friday and Saturday, especially to central NM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  82  58  76 /   0   0  10  20
Dulce...........................  38  79  43  73 /   5   0  10  20
Cuba............................  46  78  50  73 /   0   0  20  30
Gallup..........................  46  80  51  74 /   0   0  20  30
El Morro........................  47  77  51  73 /   0   5  20  40
Grants..........................  47  82  51  78 /   0   0  20  50
Quemado.........................  48  79  51  75 /   0  10  20  50
Magdalena.......................  53  81  56  79 /   0   5  10  50
Datil...........................  48  77  51  75 /   0   5  20  50
Reserve.........................  48  85  52  84 /   5  10  20  40
Glenwood........................  53  89  57  88 /   5  10  10  30
Chama...........................  40  73  43  68 /   5   0  10  30
Los Alamos......................  52  77  54  73 /   0   0  10  30
Pecos...........................  49  77  51  75 /   0   0   5  20
Cerro/Questa....................  45  75  48  72 /  10   0   5  20
Red River.......................  38  66  40  63 /  10   0   5  20
Angel Fire......................  33  71  35  68 /  10   0   5  20
Taos............................  43  79  46  76 /   5   0   5  20
Mora............................  44  74  46  72 /   0   0   5  20
Espanola........................  48  84  51  80 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Fe........................  52  78  55  75 /   0   0   5  20
Santa Fe Airport................  49  82  52  79 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  84  62  81 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  86  59  83 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  88  59  85 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  86  60  83 /   0   0  10  30
Belen...........................  53  88  56  86 /   0   0   5  30
Bernalillo......................  55  87  59  84 /   0   0  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  52  87  56  84 /   0   0   5  30
Corrales........................  56  88  59  84 /   0   0  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  54  87  57  84 /   0   0   5  30
Placitas........................  56  82  58  79 /   0   0   5  20
Rio Rancho......................  56  87  59  83 /   0   0  10  30
Socorro.........................  58  90  61  88 /   0   0   5  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  78  53  76 /   0   0   5  30
Tijeras.........................  53  80  55  77 /   0   0   5  30
Edgewood........................  48  80  51  79 /   0   0   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  82  48  81 /   0   0   5  20
Clines Corners..................  50  77  53  76 /   0   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  51  80  53  79 /   0   0   5  30
Gran Quivira....................  51  80  53  80 /   0   0   5  30
Carrizozo.......................  57  83  59  84 /   0   0   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  53  76  55  78 /   0   0   0  20
Capulin.........................  46  75  48  76 /  40   5   0  20
Raton...........................  46  80  47  79 /  30   0   0  10
Springer........................  46  82  48  81 /  10   0   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  48  78  50  78 /   0   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  55  82  55  86 /  30   5   0  10
Roy.............................  50  81  51  82 /  10   0   0  10
Conchas.........................  55  88  56  89 /   5   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  53  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  54  85  56  89 /   5   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  60  90  60  92 /   5   0   0   5
Portales........................  60  91  60  93 /   5   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  57  90  58  91 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  61  93  61  94 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  57  87  59  89 /   0   0   0  20
Elk.............................  55  85  56  87 /   0   0   0  20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion