Cucumber, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

331
FXUS61 KRLX 212234
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
634 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms this evening into tonight via a crossing
shortwave. The chance of showers and storms increases during the
new work week as multiple upper disturbances affect the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 627 PM Sunday...
Have increased PoPs over the next few hours across southeast
Ohio and the lowlands of WV to correlate with a line of
scattered showers and thunderstorms that have developed via a
weak crossing shortwave. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain
remain the main threats, with isolated strong gusts possible,
primarily across southeast Ohio and the northern lowlands of WV.
The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 127 PM Sunday...
Frontal boundary stalled across the area will slowly move north
throughout the day today, with flow turning more southerly and
an uptick in the humidity/dew points expected. Dew points should
rise to the lower to possibly mid 60s in spots. A shortwave
crossing the area will help to generate more showers and storms,
with best chances looking to be across SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley
and NE KY zones. Increasing deep layer shear and instability,
will lead to the potential for storms to become organized, with
a damaging wind and possible hail threat. SPC has added a
marginal risk, mainly just to the west of the area, but it does
clip our SE Ohio and NE KY zones.
Monday will continue to be active across the area with a humid air
mass in place as area remains in the warm sector of low pressure
across the Great Lakes region. Showers and storms will be on the
increase, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. Storms
will contain brief heavy downpours as PW values surge well above
seasonal norms. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be
possible on Monday, with ample instability and shear on the order of
30-40 kts. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with any
convection on Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 127 PM Sunday...
Tuesday will continue to be active across the area as low pressure
skirts across the Great Lakes/Canada, and multiple shortwaves
continue to traverse the area. An isolated strong to severe storm
will also be possible on Tuesday, although chances look to be
somewhat low at this point. Wednesday looks to continue to be very
active across the area as low pressure across the midwest starts to
organize, eventually carving out a deep trough to our west.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 128 PM Sunday...
Active weather continues Thursday onward as a developing low
pressure system takes hold across the central U.S. and gradually
makes its way eastward towards the area. This will result in not
only showery/stormy conditions, but cooler conditions across the
area as it carves out a trough across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...
Scattered showers and storms, the bulk of which will occur
between 20Z Sunday to 04Z Monday, will result in brief MVFR/IFR
restrictions and gusty erratic winds. Most of the convective
activity can be expected across SE Ohio, NE KY, and the Mid
Ohio Valley, but is possible at all TAF sites.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions expected with a generally
light southerly wind, although occasional gusts in the teens are
expected through 23Z.
There is the possibility for low ceilings/vsbys to form again
tonight across the northern mountains, including at site KEKN,
generally 06-13Z.
Showers and storms will start to ramp back up again in coverage
towards the end of the TAF period on Monday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary. Flight restrictions across the
northern mountains tonight may be worse than currently forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Compared to historical records and the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate
Normals, it was a very warm summer across the NWS Charleston
forecast area. The summer season encapsulates the period of June
1st through August 31st. Mean temperatures for the 2025 summer
season were generally 1 to 3 degrees above normal. This translated
into four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the
top 10 in terms of their warmest mean summer temperatures on record.
As is typical during the summer season, precipitation totals
varied rather significantly across the forecast area depending
on location, ranging from as low as 7 to 9 inches in portions of
southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky, to as high as 16 to nearly
20 inches across some locations in the lowlands of West Virginia
and northeast mountains. This resulted in a wide range of
precipitation departures depending on location, with some areas
ending up well below normal in terms of total precipitation,
while others well above normal, with the overall spread of
departures ranging from approximately +/- 5 inches. Even with
this wide range of precipitation totals across the forecast area,
no top 10s were set at any of the official NWS Charleston climate
locations in terms of wettest or driest summer on record.
Summer 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Location             Top 10 Rank                Observed Value
- Elkins, WV         : 2nd Warmest             -> 72.1 F
- Huntington, WV     : 4th Warmest             -> 77.9 F
- Clarksburg, WV     : Tied 4th Warmest        -> 74.5 F
- Beckley, WV        : 6th Warmest             -> 71.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------------
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
CLIMATE...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion