Cullman, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

712
FXUS64 KHUN 111539
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1039 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Through the day today, a vort max will translate SE across the TN
Valley along the base of a mid level trough that is slowly pushing
east across the mid atlantic. This feature will provide just
enough support for a low chance of isolated showers and storms
through the day. Currently, a few showers can already be seen in
NE AL moving south. This isolated shower activity will likely
continue for the next few hours with conditions drying out by mid
day. While lingering cloud cover from NE showers may slightly
limit afternoon temperatures in the east, we will likely meet
convective temps in the west by early afternoon. Thus, another
round of isolated showers and storms will be possible from mid
afternoon through the evening. The weak forcing will limit the
coverage of showers and storms however the ample sunshine will
allow us to become fairly unstable. HIRES model soundings indicate
the presence of an inverted V profile and a few hundred to just
over 1000 J/KG of DCAPE present in NW AL by mid afternoon. Despite
the weak forcing, the unstable airmass will support a low threat
for damaging downburst winds for any storms that get going. While
chances are ~20% across the area, NW AL may be slightly more
favorable due to the additional sunshine present this morning.
As the vort max moves SE beyond the area, any showers and storms
that do develop will wane as the sun sets. Clear skies will
develop overnight with lows dropping into the low 60s. With light
winds, if temps can drop to the dew points, patchy fog looks
possible during the early morning hours with best chances in
sheltered valleys and along water ways.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The aforementioned mid level trough will progress off the Atlantic
coast through the second half of the week and into the weekend. In
its wake, mid level ridging will build in from the west. We look
to remain on the eastern periphery of this ridging placing us
solidly within NNE flow through the duration of the short term
forecast. This NE flow will contain higher dew points and moisture
to the Gulf coast keeping our dew points comfortably in the 50s
and low 60s. This will be of benefit to us locally as under high
pressure temperatures enter a warming trend through the weekend.
Under mostly clear skies, temperatures look to warm from the high
80s to low 90s on Friday to the low to mid 90s by Sunday.
Fortunately with the low dew points this will keep heat indices
well below 100 and negate the need for any heat products. Even so,
temps look to be around 5 degrees above normal for mid September
(normal being 86-88 degrees). Please make sure to continue to
practice proper heat safety especially for those partaking in
outdoor activities.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Forecast data from the latest suite of global models suggests
that a weakening subtropical high across TX will retrograde
westward into the southern Rockies/southwestern CONUS and adjacent
portions of northern Mexico over the course of the long term
period. However, a slow-moving longwave trough over the northern
Rockies will maintain a narrow but amplified 500-mb ridge
extending northeastward from the departing high into the Great
Lakes and southern Canada. Although the ridge axis is predicted to
be oriented well to our northwest, it will effectively deflect
convective clouds and precipitation (associated with several
smaller scale waves ejecting out of the northern Rockies trough),
with abundant insolation and general lack of clouds contributing
to an extended period of hot/dry weather. Highs each day from
Sunday-Wednesday will range from the u80s-l90s/E to l-m 90s/W, but
with dewpoints in the u50s-l60s, HI values will be near or only a
degree or so warmer than ambient air temperatures. Overnight lows
will remain in the l-m 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the TAF
period. While there is a very low chance of a stray shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon, did not include a mention in the TAF
do to low coverage and uncertainty.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion