Cushing, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

102
FXUS65 KSLC 050921
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
321 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A trailing shortwave behind the exiting Pacific storm
system will bring scattered showers to northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming as temperatures stay on the cool side. Otherwise, dry
conditions will persist for the first half of the week, with
temperatures warming back to seasonal normals by midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...The Pacific storm system
that brought substantial precipitation to northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming is exiting the area this morning. However, some
showers still persist over northern Utah, in particular for the
northern Wasatch Front. These showers will tend to diminish during
the morning. However, a trailing shortwave will bring additional
instability to northern portions of the area, resulting in
scattered convection, particularly for areas closer to the
Utah/Idaho border, through the afternoon. In the wake of the storm
system, temperatures will remain on the cool side, with maxes
averaging 10F below seasonal normals.
By Monday, a Rex Block pattern is expected to develop off the
Pacific coast, with a low situated off the southern California
coast and a ridge over the Pacific Northwest. This will bring
several days of dry conditions with a gradual warming trend in
temperatures.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...Southwest Wyoming and Utah will
be dry with conditions warming much of the week. Ensembles are in
good agreement that high pressure to the southeast will retrograde
through Friday into the southwest. Temperatures will be around 5F
cooler than normal Tuesday. Lows to start the day will be cold
enough for freeze conditions for many valleys, not including the
urban corridor of northern Utah. Valley highs will generally range
from the mid 60s to low 70s.
Wednesday and Thursday will be similar, with temperatures warming
around 5F each day.
As the ridge tracks into the southwest, there will be other storm
systems that approach the region. Ensembles are in good agreement on
a longwave trough approaching the west coast, which will enhance
southwest winds from Wednesday likely into the weekend. The other
feature will be remnants of a tropical system. Tropical Storm
Priscilla, which is south of Baja California, is forecast to become
a hurricane and then back to a tropical storm during the week as it
tracks west of Baja California. Ensembles have a range of tracks
with this system that would interact with the ridge and longwave
trough as it pushes into the southwest. The different tracks make
for a range of precipitation totals between ensemble members.
Regardless, precipitation probability will pick up Friday into the
weekend. Depending on the track and timing of the longwave trough
and tropical system, portions of Utah could be in a location for an
impressive rain event.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Dry conditions will last through the morning,
with around a 30% chance for rain showers from 18-22Z. Light
southeast winds will transition to northwest around 18Z.
.Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...Scattered rain showers will
last through around 00Z for southwest Wyoming and far northern Utah.
Winds will be light throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah, generally
from the north or northwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...The robust storm system that brought significant
precipitation to portions of the state is exiting the area this
morning, though showers continue over northern Utah. A trailing
shortwave will keep scattered showers going through the afternoon,
particularly for areas near the Utah/Idaho border, with dry
conditions for central and southern Utah. After that, a Rex Block
pattern will keep conditions dry over Utah through at least the
middle of the week, with temperatures steadily warming back to
near normal for this time of year with light winds. As southwest
flow develops late in the wake, moisture is expected to move back
in, bringing increasing precipitation chances, particularly for
southern Utah.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Wilson
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion