Cutler Ridge, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

405
FXUS62 KMFL 041835
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
235 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- Wet and unsettled pattern continues, with repeat rounds of
   showers/storms possible each afternoon. However, uncertainty
   has increased regarding flooding impacts across the area as
   drier air aloft prevents more widespread showers and storms.
- Marine and beach conditions remain dangerous this weekend as
   swell and onshore flow persist, but will gradually improve with
   the new week.
- Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains likely into next
   week as we approach the peak of this King tide.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Scattered showers have developed this afternoon and are pushing
east to west across the area. This activity is expected to
continue through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, and a
few showers could impact portions of the east coast metro
overnight as well. Due to a pesky layer of drier air aloft, storms
are not expected to be as widespread as initially anticipated. A
few storms may finally develop today towards the early evening
hours near interior and Southwest Florida however the risk for
storms across eastern areas is lower today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Chances for a wet and unsettled weekend remain elevated as two areas
of low pressure flank the Florida peninsula (one over the Gulf, one
over the Bahamas), with a diffuse boundary over the Florida Straits
connecting them both and a ridge of high pressure out over the
Atlantic. This setup will continue to support breezy easterly-
northeasterly winds near the surface as the pressure gradient
between the low and surface high over the Atlantic persists. This
will also help maintain continued moisture transport in the lower
levels of the atmospheric column, with climo PWATs (1.8-2.0 inches)
across much of the region. As a result, the chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing remain elevated, especially
with the diffuse boundary to our south providing a source of
lift, and this is captured pretty well by the high-res model
guidance.
However, uncertainty regarding the heavy rain impacts for South
Florida have increased a bit from previous forecast packages, mostly
in response to a slower progression of the low WNW and drier mid-
and upper-level conditions across the peninsula thanks to
generally westerly flow aloft. This drier air helped inhibit
widespread coverage and heavier downpours on Friday. HREF guidance
continue to show this pattern through the early afternoon hours
today, with flow gradually shifting from the south late in the
afternoon. This would help moisten the atmospheric column, helping
enhance chances for more rain. The uncertainty lies in when and
if this shift happens. If it happens later in the day, the most
likely outcome would be fairly scattered and transient activity
over land and most of the heavier rain remaining off-shore.
However, it we get more moisture aloft earlier, that could lead to
slightly wetter conditions across South Florida. For now, keeping
50-60% PoPs, with most likely 1-2" acumulations and 1 in 10
chance of isolated spots getting up to 3-4".
Most guidance keeps the low to our east remaining weak, potentially
even opening up into a wave, Sunday into Monday as it slowly
meanders WNW. With this slower, weaker progression, and the
potential additional moisture aloft, Sunday could be the wetter of
the two days this weekend. However, this will all remain very
dependent on how both of these possibilities play out, so for now
will keep a generally similar forecast to Saturday.
Highs will rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s today, with the
warmest temperatures found across southwest FL thanks to the ENE
flow regime. Overnight temps could dip to the low to mid 70s over
the interior, and warmer upper 70s along the East Coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Ridging begins to build aloft across the southeast CONUS as we head
into next week, while a surface high is forecast to set up over the
eastern US/Atlantic. This will help usher in a return to the more
routine summertime regime of easterly winds and afternoon showers
and thunderstorms over the interior and southwest. Breezy onshore
winds could develop as the surface high is forecast to interact with
another boundary across the region. Some guidance has started to
hint at the first cold front of the season potentially making its
approach late next week, and we`ll be eagerly monitoring that
solution as we get closer.
High temperatures through the extended period will generally
range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid
70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Gusty easterly flow prevails through this afternoon and evening. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms will develop near the east coast
terminals and they will continue through the day. A few lingering
showers will be possible overnight along the east coast as well.
At KAPF, VFR conditions will prevail through this morning,
however, scattered showers and storms could develop near the
terminal this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to remain a concern for
one last day across the Atlantic waters as lingering
northeasterly swell continues, and a tight pressure gradient
continues to maintain breezy ENE flow. Seas will range from 6-9
feet today, but will begin to subside on Sunday as the pressure
gradient relaxes and winds decrease. Conditions across the Gulf
will being to improve today as winds decrease. Additionally,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect through the duration of the
weekend for portions of the local waters as the aforementioned
threat persists.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell will result in a high risk of
rip currents and high surf heights (for Palm Beach county beaches)
through the weekend.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible along the east
coast this weekend and into next week during high tides due to the
upcoming king tide cycle, and ongoing E/NE swell.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  89  77  87 /  30  50  30  70
West Kendall     76  89  76  88 /  30  60  20  70
Opa-Locka        77  89  77  88 /  30  50  30  70
Homestead        77  88  76  87 /  30  50  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  87  77  87 /  40  50  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  77  87  77  87 /  30  60  40  70
Pembroke Pines   78  90  77  89 /  30  50  30  70
West Palm Beach  77  87  77  87 /  40  60  40  70
Boca Raton       77  88  77  87 /  40  60  40  70
Naples           76  90  76  89 /  20  50  10  50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172-173.
High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168.
High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ650-670.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Rizzuto

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion