Daniels, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

805
FXUS65 KPIH 221209
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
609 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms with light showers this morning and this
  afternoon.
- High pressure returns with strong warming from Tuesday into
  Wednesday.
- High pressure keeps precipitation away until next Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Trough sweeeping in from the west that triggered the showers and
thunderstorms yesterday will continue to do that for the eastern
half of the forecast area, from about Pocatello eastward to the
WY border. Unstable conditions even this morning could mean some
isolated thunderstorms, but more likely for the afternoon. By
late afternoon/early evening, showers should end. This brings
the start of a warming period with clearer skies. Temperatures
should jump 5 to 9 deg F from the Tue high to the Wed high.
Temperatures threaten to reach frost thresholds, mainly in the
three forecast zones that make up the Snake River plain. Will
issue for this region this morning for Tue morning.
Outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow wind, the wind through a
deep layer is very light even today with the departing trough.
Tue looks incredibly light and then only a very slight increase
for Wed.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The warm and dry period continues to the very end of this
timeframe. Temperatures will be at or above normal for the high
each day and below to near normal for morning lows. This may
lead to more Frost Advisories but not quite cold enough for a
freeze. Fri afternoon may have the "strongest" wind, reaching
maybe 10KT/12 mph. See no impactful weather during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
SHRA and TSRA are ongoing even at this early hour. SHRA will be
more prevalent in the morning hours, then cloudiness starts to
thin and the heating will generate TSRA in the afternoon. This
is occurring everywhere except at KSUN and KBYI where the threat
has already passed. Those two airdromes should be unlimited for
CIG and VSBY. KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ will have issues with
marginal VFR conditions, mainly for CIG, but there is a low
threat of VSBY being affected as well. Outside of thunderstorms,
wind should be light, and mainly variable with the showers all
around in the east. The TSRA risk has a hard time reaching to
PROB30 levels in the morning, except for KIDA, so have only
included it there. PROB30 for TSRA more likely in the afternoon
for KPIH and KDIJ. SHRA is for the most part predominant in the
morning, then lowers to a more VCSH threat. It all clears out by
23/00Z, with wind staying light.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
After some weak and isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers
both this morning and this afternoon, skies should clear early
in the evening and high pressure returns to dominate the weather
pattern for nearly a full week. Humidity starts taking a strong
drop for the afternoon on Thu afternoon, but with dewpoints
staying above 30 deg F in the Snake River plain, it would take
afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s to reach 15 percent.
That may happen on the warmest day this week, Tue, with low 80s
appear possible. However, most temperatures at that elevation
only warm to the upper 70s. The same holds true for higher
elevations, with dewpoints in the middle 20s, the temperature
must warm to the middle 70s, which it just may barely do one day
this week, once the moisture evaporates some and the moisture
content lowers. Then the other consideration is the wind. Under
high pressure, do not see anything likely to increase the wind
to gusting in the 25 to 30 mph range anywhere. Next threat of
precipitation occurs just outside the forecast window, on next
Mon.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ052>054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Messick

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion