Dannelly, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

194
FXUS64 KBMX 180610
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
110 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are slowly drifting
southward in the vicinity of Shelby and Talladega counties as of
the midnight hour. Outflow interaction, along with a weak but
evident area of low-level convergence, should allow this activity
to persist for a tad longer with perhaps additional cells popping
farther south deeper into the night.
At least isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast during
the afternoon to early/mid-evening hours today and Friday. As has
been the trend the past two nights, outflow and a few corridors
of convergence shown in the low-level wind field could yield some
spotty activity overnight. Above-normal daytime warmth continues,
with forecast high temperatures in the lower 90s placing us
between 5-10 degrees above normal.
89^GSatterwhite
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
Shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend aren`t too
dissimilar from earlier in the week; most areas remain dry with
models showing a signal for isolated activity for parts of the
Gulf Coast region. High temperatures in the 90s are expected.
Models show a jet impulse currently over the north Pacific
yielding an upper-level low near the central U.S. by early to mid
next week. While the configuration is a bit different amongst
model members, the overall pattern would support a broad area of
lift across the region. Shower/thunderstorm chances have climbed a
touch, now ~30% by the NBM for a couple days next week, and may
do so again looking at the coverage on GFS/ECMWF ensembles, should
this signal hold.
89^GSatterwhite
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will affect EET through as late as 08z
tonight/Thursday; otherwise, VFR clouds are drifting about
central Alabama from earlier activity. Fog may affect ASN and EET,
if clouds clear, as those locations picked up some rain.
At least isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast this
afternoon into evening. Predictability is low for any given
terminal; we`ll monitor satellite/radar for amendments. Winds
will favor a northwesterly heading around 5 knots from ~15z
onward, though there could be some variability at times.
89^GSatterwhite
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum RHs will be as low as the lower to middle 30s
for parts of central Alabama through the weekend. Minimum
percentages will be a tad higher next week as a weather system
approaches with slightly higher dew points. Showers and
thunderstorms remain limited in coverage through the weekend, with
perhaps a trend toward scattered coverage next week. Though there
may be some directional variability at times, winds should favor a
northwest to north heading today and Friday. Saturday may be
variable as we trend toward southerly flow Sunday onward.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  62  92  63 /  20  10  20   0
Anniston    89  65  91  65 /  20  10  20   0
Birmingham  92  68  93  67 /  20  10  20   0
Tuscaloosa  95  68  94  67 /  20  20  20   0
Calera      93  68  93  67 /  20  20  20   0
Auburn      90  68  91  67 /  20  20  20   0
Montgomery  92  68  93  67 /  20  20  20   0
Troy        91  67  91  66 /  20  20  20   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion