Dawn, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

360
FXUS64 KAMA 291109
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
609 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms may make a return next weekend with
another weather system, but confidence is low at this time
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The upper-level trough that has been hanging back in the
Southwestern US through this weekend is progressing eastward,
currently over the Four Corner states. Weak forcing for ascent
should be present, particularly in the western Panhandles throughout
the day. There is around a 5-10% chance for showers, which would be
isolated in nature, across the western Panhandles throughout the
day. Thunderstorms are unlikely given that not much, if any,
instability is expected. Given modest PWATs and the presence of low-
level dry air which would cause initial evaporation, not expecting
notable rainfall totals by any stretch of the imagination.
The Panhandles will be sandwiched between two weather systems, with
the weekend`s system off to the east and another system to the west.
A surface low will develop along the front range of the Rockies as a
result, and sustained winds will strengthen to 10-20 mph across the
northwestern combined Panhandles.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Quiet weather with highs in the mid to upper-80s is expected from
Wednesday through Friday as an upper-level ridge settles over the
region in response to a trough entering through the Pacific
Northwest. Model guidance varies considerably beginning on Friday
regarding the speed/track of the trough, but we should begin to see
winds strengthen on Friday as a surface low develops in Colorado.
Will have to watch next weekend for the potential for rain, but it
heavily depends upon the track of the upper-level system and the
ability for moisture to return from the Gulf and the Pacific. The
NBM has 10-20% PoPs across the area for Saturday night which seems
reasonable at this time.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. VCSH conditions introduced at KAMA for the first few
hours with potential rain coming up from the south and southwest,
but should keep conditions at VFR. Winds will be out of the south
and southwest at 5-15 kts with sct to bkn high clouds.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion