Dewitt, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

749
FXUS61 KAKQ 181849
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
249 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering area of low pressure continues to move offshore and
away from the area today. A brief warmup is expected today and
tomorrow before a return to near to slightly below average
temperatures this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Weather conditions improve later today as the low exits the area.
A trough of low pressure (at the sfc and aloft) is now situated
just NE of the forecast area this morning. The persistent cloud
deck is beginning to scour across the Piedmont, with satellite
imagery showing the clearing line slowly inching SSE. Overcast
conditions, with perhaps some continuing mist and drizzle, is
expected for SE VA and NE NC through the rest of the morning.
Elsewhere, it should be dry with gradual clearing. Skies should
become partly to mostly sunny by late afternoon as high
pressure moves back into the area with the trough scooting
further away. High temperatures for the day will climb into the
lower 80s along and west of I-95 and upper 70s east of I-95.
Mostly clear and seasonably cool tonight with lows dropping back
into the upper 50s-lower 60s. Cannot rule out patchy fog late
tonight (mainly east of I-95), especially where the heaviest
rain fell.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Warm and pleasant weather conditions are expected Friday as high
  pressure remains in control.
- A backdoor cold front crosses the area on Saturday, dropping
  temperatures to near to slightly below average for the
  weekend with mainly dry weather.
A weak upper level ridge will be centered over the area Friday. At
the surface, high pressure will remain in control and 850-925mb
temps are progged to warm by a few degrees C despite weak low-level
flow. Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s across the area.
Localized upper 80s are possible. With the high remaining over the
area with mostly clear skies, temps drop back into the lower 60s
Friday night. A cooling trend (but not a huge one) is expected this
weekend. A backdoor cold front crosses the area Saturday morning,
shifting the winds to the ENE-NE. Mainly dry on Sat with highs in
the upper 70s-lower 80s NE with lower-mid 80s SW. Can`t rule out an
isolated shower Sat aftn across the Piedmont. The onshore flow
continues on Sunday as 1025-1030mb high pressure builds from
northern New England to Nova Scotia. It will be cooler with more
cloud cover with a low chance for a light shower or two across much
of the area. Highs Sun mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry with near to slightly above average temperatures
  early next week.
- Rain chances potentially return by late next week.
Upper heights rise a bit early next week as ridging builds offshore
of the SE CONUS coast and a strong upper low dives into the central
Plains. Surface high pressure will be centered offshore of Nova
Scotia on Mon/Tue, with the associated surface ridge still over the
area. While this type of pattern can lead to a CAD setup, the
guidance shows a slight warming trend with highs back into the lower
80s early next week with minimal precip chances through at least
Wednesday. Nevertheless, will continue to watch the potential for
temps to be cooler than expected. Rain chances return by late in the
week as the low in the Plains slowly tracks eastward.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...
A persistent, but slowly eroding, cloud deck remains over most
of eastern VA, the lower MD Eastern Shore, and NE NC this
afternoon. Within this cloud deck, CIGs are mainly MVFR.
However, expect CIGs to slowly rise through this afternoon to
VFR as skies clear. This should happen first at RIC and SBY,
followed by ORF/PHF, and then ECG. Dry wx is expected for the
entirety of the TAF period. NW winds avg ~5 kt this afternoon,
becoming light or calm tonight. There is some signal for fog
across SE VA and NE NC late tonight into early Friday. Will
introduce mention of reduced VSBY in the ORF and ECG TAF,
though confidence is higher at ECG. Fog could be locally dense
at times. Mainly clear skies and VFR with a light W west wind
for Friday.
Outlook: Outside of localized instances of morning patchy fog,
dry/VFR conditions are expected tonight into Saturday. Another
round of sub-VFR CIGs may be possible Saturday night into Sunday
in the wake of a backdoor cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 249 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Benign marine conditions tonight through Friday night.
- A back door cold front this weekend may bring SCA conditions.
Low pressure has now moved further off the coast this afternoon as
high pressure builds into the area. Sustained northwesterly winds
are around 10 kts or less across the local waters, with gusts up to
15 kts. Seas are 2-3 ft in the coastal waters and waves in the Bay
range between 1-2 ft.
Sub-SCA conditions will continue through Saturday morning as the
gradient weakens further overnight. With weak flow expected
tomorrow, winds along the coast will be influenced by the seabreeze
in the afternoon. Heading into the weekend, a backdoor cold front
will start to approach the area overnight on Friday and move
southward across the coastal waters during the day Saturday. Winds
behind the front will quickly shift to the NE and increase to 15-20
kt, starting in the northern waters then expanding southwards as the
front drifts across the remainder of the locals waters. Winds will
remain elevated through Sunday, and seas will increase in response
to the period of increased flow. Seas of 5-6 ft are forecast for the
coastal waters Sunday through Monday, and waves will build to 2-3 ft
starting Saturday night. SCA are likely for seas in the coastal
waters, and winds in the Bay may reach SCA criteria but it will be a
marginal event as the waters have started to cool down thanks to the
prolonged period of cooler temperatures over the past month. By
Monday, high pressure will continue to build across the region and
winds will decrease in response, with sub-SCA conditions returning
likely for the remainder of the work week.
A moderate rip current risk is in effect for all beaches today.
Low risk of rip currents is expected everywhere Friday and
Saturday, with moderate risk of rip currents returning on
Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 249 PM EDT Thursday...
Nuisance flooding is possible on the Chesapeake Bay side of the MD
Eastern Shore (near Bishop`s Head and Crisfield) with the Thursday
overnight`s high tide.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...ERI/SW
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...NB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion