Doughton, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

167
FXUS61 KRNK 131046
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
646 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep our weather dry through the weekend into
early next week. A coastal low may bring an opportunity for
showers midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 109 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) Expect dry and seasonal weather through tonight.
High pressure remains in control across the area through
tonight. Aside from some patchy fog at night and a few cumulus
clouds during the day, expect clear skies. Temperatures start to
reach near normal with highs in the lower 80s in the Piedmont to
mid 70s to around 80 west, as an upper ridge starts to build in
from the west.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s, except for a few upper 40s in
the deeper mountain valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Points:
1. Dry weather continues into Monday.
2. Isolated to scattered showers are expected, especially in the
east, Monday night through Tuesday night.
3. Temperatures will trend lower through the period but remain
slightly above normal.
A look at the 12 Sep 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Sunday/Sunday night an upper trough will be along
the US East Coast from roughly NC and points north. Additionally, a
upper ridge will be centered over the Mississippi Valley. A series
of upper troughs will extend from the Dakotas west to the Pacific
NW. For Monday/Monday night, the trough over the East Coast heads
northeast to over Canadian Maritimes. The ridge over the Mississippi
Valley expands to cover much of central CONUS. Troughiness continues
between the Dakotas and the Pacific NW. For Tuesday/Tuesday night,
ridging continues over central CONUS. Additional ridging is expected
over parts of the western Atlantic, leaving a bit of a weakness over
the eastern US.
At the surface, for Sunday/Sunday night a trough will be positioned
across the East Coast of the US. A lengthy ridge is expected over
the Mississippi Valley. A series of low pressure centers will be
over the Dakotas to the Pacific Northwest. For Monday/Monday night,
a northwest to southeast oriented omega pattern is expected across
CONUS. The western trough is expected over the Dakotas, the ridge
over much of central CONUS and the other trough over the East Coast
and Southeast US. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the same general omega
pattern continues. However, the ridging portion may trend weaker
with the western extent trough deepening a bit.
A look at the 12 Sep 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures on Sunday around +15 to +17C. For Monday
and Tuesday values dip a little to around +14C to +16C across the
region.
The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. High
pressure will continue to provide our region with a rain-free
Sunday/Sunday night and temperatures averaging around five degrees
above normal. On Monday/Monday night, a trough/low develops over the
eastern and southeastern sections of the US. While we are expected
to remain dry on Monday, some associated shower activity may work
its way into parts of the region Monday night from southeast to
northwest. This same system is expected to make gradual progression
north on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Shower coverage will be greatest
closest to the low/trough axis over eastern sections of the area.
Temperature Monday into Tuesday will trend slightly lower thanks to
increasing cloud cover and chances of rainfall.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Points:
1. Isolated to scattered showers still expected Wednesday.
2. Mainly dry Thursday and Friday.
3. Temperatures near or slightly above normal.
A look a the 12 Sep 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Wednesday/Wednesday night the axis of an upper
ridges is expected to shift east to the eastern third of CONUS. An
upper trough is expected to move from the Pacific NW to the northern
half of central CONUS. Its progress shunts the upper ridge to the
southwest US, while the pressure weakness over the East Coast
continues. For Thursday/Thursday night, an upper rough over north-
central CONUS shifts eastward. This progression helps to eject the
East Coast trough northeast. On Friday, the trough moves into parts
of the Lower Ohio Valley.
At the surface, for Wednesday/Wednesday night, the trend started on
Tuesday of a weakening ridge portion of a omega pattern across CONUS
continues. For Thursday/Thursday night, much of the ridging is
expected to shunted to southern half of CONUS. An approaching trough
through the Great Lakes region is expected to strengthen, and the
trough along the East Coast may transition farther northeast. For
Friday, the Great Lakes trough is not expected to make much headway
eastward, but deepen a bit. In response, there is a bit of a
resurgence of ridging over the East Coast.
A look at the 12 Aug 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures around +15C for Wednesday, +16C on
Thursday, and around +17C on Friday.
The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. Scattered
showers will remain in the forecast, especially over eastern
sections of the region Wednesday/Wednesday night thanks to the slow
progression north of a an East Coast low/trough axis. For
Thursday/Thursday night, the East Coast low/trough progresses
northeast of the region, and with it the bulk of its associated
showers. Also helping a trend towards drier weather is the
rebuilding of a ridge axis just to our west. On Friday, a trough is
expected to deepen over the Great Lakes. However, limited showers
chances are expected over our region thanks to ridging aloft. Anti-
cyclonic flow around this ridge may help yield pooling of moisture
along the NC mountains, and be a focus for isolated afternoon
showers. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are
expected to be near or slightly milder than normal.
Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Saturday...
VFR conditions through the period. Some fog at LWB this morning
may bring 2sm through 13z. Could see fog again late tonight at
LWB, but overall confidence is lower as we continue to dry out.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
High pressure will continue to provide VFR conditions through
Sunday and Monday. The only exception will be patchy fog in the
river valleys during the nighttime into early morning hours. By
Tuesday, the models indicate a low pressure system cutting off
along the South Carolina coast and possibly spreading moisture
northward to bring the next chance of rain and potential MVFR/IFR
conditions through Wednesday along and east of the Blue Ridge.
Confidence is low on the midweek system.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...WP

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion