Dresden, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

158
FXUS63 KGLD 252332
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
532 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly above normal temperatures (upper 70s to mid 80s) and
  dry conditions are forecast through the weekend.
- Gusty south winds of 30-45 mph return Sunday and Monday.
- There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms returning
  early next work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Under the influence of upper level ridging, the dry and
cloudless conditions observed this afternoon will continue
through the remainder of the day. Overnight, heights will lower
as the ridge shifts east and an elongated, positively-tilted
trough approaches. While the lack of clouds will make for
efficient radiational cooling conditions and hence a stout
nocturnal temperature inversion, deterministic guidance suggests
an increasing surface pressure gradient which (in theory)
should be sufficient to maintain at least some wind (HREF mean
5-8 mph) all night; given the southwesterly (downslope)
direction, this should limit fog potential with NBM/HREF
probabilities less than 10%. The lack of clouds and fog will
allow surface temperatures to, like last night, sink like a rock
with forecast lows in the mid to upper 40s area-wide.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance advertises 850mb temps
climb a couple degrees tomorrow, into the 22-24 degC range (up
from 19-21 degC today), suggesting it`ll be a couple degrees
warmer; our forecast features highs in the low to mid 80s.
Tomorrow night, a cold front will drop south out of Nebraska,
bringing a wind shift and perhaps some breezier conditions with
various CAMs highlighting gusts to 20-25 mph from the north-
northeast. That should be the only sign of the frontal passage,
however, as moisture return (off the Pacific) ahead of the front
will be quite scarce.
As an upper level ridge nudges into the Great Basin and erodes
a section of our positively tilted trough, a cut off low will
develop in the Southwest tomorrow night into Saturday, leaving
our area in the tranquil col area Saturday into Saturday night.
With some cooling of temperatures aloft, this will result in
slightly less warm conditions, mainly across our northwest
counties (in the tri-state area) where forecast highs are in the
mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
As that upper high shifts east, the pattern becomes
increasingly amplified, with strengthening diffluent south-
southwesterly flow emerging across the Southwest and High
Plains. The aforementioned cut-off low will get swept up by
these southwesterlies aloft, and consequently a pair of
disturbances will lift across the region, sparking low chances
for precipitation Sunday night and again Monday night into
Tuesday. Confidence in any severe weather remains low at this
time, with limited moisture return being the limiting factor. A
tightening pressure gradient between the surface high slowly
shifting east and one/more lee cyclones developing across
central- eastern CO will also favor seasonably breezy conditions
Sunday through Tuesday. While the magnitude of those southerly
winds each afternoon will be a function of mixing depth (itself
a function of dryline placement), the National Blend of Models
(NBM) suggests the highest confidence in gusts over 40 mph
(60-80% chance) will be Monday west of an Oberlin to Colby to
Russell Springs line. We`ll have to carefully watch the timing
of any fronts to assess potential for blowing dust, as steep
0-2km lapse rates in their wake and strong top of channel winds
(35-40 kt at 850mb) could promote at least some low end
potential. Forecast high temperatures range from the low to mid
80s each day, though one wouldn`t be surprised if Sunday winds
up a little warmer (and windier) than forecast should mixing be
deeper than expected, as LREF mean brings 850mb temps into the
23-24 degC range.
As global deterministic and ensemble guidance diverges mid to
late next week, confidence in the appreciable weather decreases.
However, for what it`s worth, NBM yields generally sub
mentionable (i.e., less than 15%) chances for precipitation
Wednesday and beyond, with temperatures trending near normal in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Winds will generally back southerly as they diminish before
26.02Z. There is a 10 percent chance of patchy fog developing
overnight at MCK which may reduce visibility to MVFR. At GLD the
risk of MVFR or lower visibility is less than 5 percent. Winds
will remain southerly for Friday and will strengthen by mid-
morning to around 10 to 15 knots.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bumgardner
LONG TERM...Bumgardner
AVIATION...Huyck

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion