Dry Fork, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

878
FXUS65 KGJT 062038
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
238 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening,
  and then again tomorrow afternoon.
- Heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding today
  and tomorrow especially on burn scars and other sensitive
  locales.
- Temperatures will remain near the normal before a warming
  trend Monday onwards.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A shortwave trough is currently located over western portions of the
CWA, and will continue moving eastward through the rest of the day.
This wave is providing lift for scattered showers and storms, as
well as the terrain. Modest moisture is still in place with PWATs
ranging from 0.75-1.0 inches across the area. The latest 18z sounding
shows some CIN that may inhibit convection moving and or maintaining
strength into lower valleys. Also, the CAPE is not overly impressive,
but enough for some stronger storms. The environment certainly
supports heavy rainfall, and with weak flow aloft this could lead to
slow storm motion and ultimately flash flooding. Small hail and
gusty winds 40-50 mph are possible with the stronger cells. As the
wave moves eastward it should help move convection along. It looks
to reach the center of the CWA by sunset and exit the Divide by late
evening. As we get closer to sunset the instability should decrease
so the chances for strong storms steadily go down as we progress
this evening. We will see slightly drier air and subsidence filter
in behind the wave. This will limit afternoon convection south of I-
70 tomorrow. Scattered showers north of I-70 are expected through
the evening with most of the forcing for development coming from the
terrain. Once again localized heavy rainfall is possible for these
locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
PWAT`s continue to dry out significantly Monday following
northwesterly flow and the stacked ridge amplifying overhead.
Abundant southwesterly flow ahead of a PACNW storm will drive up
heights and temperatures. Afternoon highs will top out a couple
degrees above climatology, pushing 90 degrees in our desert valleys.
This little warmup will be short lived, as the deepening low out
west moves into the Great Basin Tuesday. Height falls and some
prefrontal lift will produce scattered showers and convection by
Tuesday afternoon, likely suppressing an otherwise hot day for much
of the region. The low elevations will be on the warm side of climo,
but the approaching storm is expected to take care of that by late
week. Ridging over the Great Plains runs block for Wednesday and
Thursday as the low drifts across the Intermountain West. This
allows for some additional moisture to get picked up, as return flow
on the high sends some late season monsoonal moisture back across
the Four Corners. Moisture likely gets a helping hand from the low
digging into Baja, sending additional Pacific moisture this way.
PWAT values are into the 150 percent of climatology range Wednesday
and Thursday. This should keep the area under afternoon showers and
thunderstorms both days. Uncertainty creeps in Friday, as the low
lifts northward and east. The monsoonal plume shifts east too. PWAT
values remain high enough for additional shower and storm activity,
but drier northwest flow behind the departing storm could dry things
out for much of the CWA. This solution continues to dry things out
Saturday. Concerns arise in the model`s handling of the decaying
low, as well as the stubborn high pressure anchored over the
Mississippi Valley. These features will have some control over the
monsoon plume and its east/west breadth. There could easily be some
additional showers Saturday on the southern mountains with a slight
shift in the synoptic pattern. Temperatures Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday look cool and fall-like in the wake of this storm.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will continue for eastern Utah and
western Colorado this afternoon. Included TEMPO conditions at
most terminals to account for spotty nature of storms.
Intermittent IFR ceilings and visibility are expected in heavier
showers. Gusty outflow winds will likely impact a few terminals
as storms decay. Small hail remains a threat too. Winds will
otherwise be light beneath the high pressure parked overhead.
Conditions will slowly improve this evening as drier air
infiltrates the region from west to east. VFR conditions are
expected across the majority of the region through Sunday
morning. A few clouds and showers will hang up along the Divide
in northern Colorado through the early morning hours of Sunday.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion