Duan, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

727
FXUS62 KGSP 191023
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
623 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible
each of the next few days over the mountains, possibly with the
exception of Sunday. Most other areas are likely to remain dry
through early next week. Temperatures will be generally at or a
little above normal for this time of year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday: Startin` ye weekend much the same way the
weather pattern has been for several days, quiet there matey. A weak
ridge and generally broad flow moves overhead in response to a less
then impressive upper low trying to form over the central CONUS. At
the surface, a mix of variable and weak winds keep any moisture
transport into the area at bay. Guidance maintains a steady 1-1.5
inch range of PWATs across the entire CWA through the end of the
period. This allows dewpoints to be relatively acceptable for human
comfort. Overnight, winds remain calm and should allow for the usual
mountain valley fog to form closer to the early morning hours. Winds
pick up after sunrise, but remain light. For the afternoon, few
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the mountains.
CAM guidance from the HRRR initiates a few small storms during the
later afternoon. Nothing severe is anticipated, and one is inclined
to ponder, why is the storm gone? The main reason is the modeled
soundings show a steep dewpoint depression and deep inverted-V.
There is an unimpressive amount of elevated instability, but less
than 200 J/kg. At best, IF a storm can even develop, it looks to be
more elevated and should dissipate to Davy Jone`s locker quickly.
For this, will keep PoPs at slight chance for the far western NC
zones. Any convective activity that occurs should quickly wind down
Friday night and remain quiet through the rest of the period. As for
temperatures, the ridge axis moves over the area throughout the near
term, slightly increasing heights. This should tick up the daytime
temp into the upper 80s, with a few locations possibly reaching 90.
Overall, keep a weather eye out on the horizon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1200 AM Friday: Wedgelike sfc high pressure over the greater
St Lawrence Valley will bring slightly stronger easterly flow
to the CWA on Saturday. Aloft a modest negatively tilted trough
will take shape during the day as well defined trough in the
northern Plains phases with existing weakness in the upper flow
over the SE CONUS. Lapse rates will be enhanced slightly Sat vs
Fri, maintaining SBCAPE in the afternoon; some semblance of DPVA
is likely.  This leads to a slight uptick in PoPs, but still mainly
over the mountains and adjacent zones. Temps will fall back to
near normal in the mountains but still a few above in the Piedmont.
500mb height rises are seen by Sunday and accordingly lapse rates
diminish or turn entirely unfavorable above 700mb; high pressure
remains in place at the surface. Some SBCAPE still manages to
develop on model progs over our western mountains and slight-chance
PoPs result on some of the ridges there, but the rest of the area
should be capped and dry. Northeast sfc flow will continue; with
lower partial thicknesses temps trend slightly cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 AM Fri: Decaying low near Lake Superior will be associated
with a weak frontal zone extending into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Slight height falls occur over our area by early Monday as
associated baggy trough moves in our direction. Prog soundings
appear slightly more favorable for convection again and PoPs
increase to slight- chance across the mountains, with similar
temperatures just on the warm side of normal.  There is general
consensus that the remnant of the Lake Superior low will blow by
to our north and the front will be gradually pulled across the
southern Appalachians Tuesday which increases PoPs but once again
mainly over the mountains with very little upper support to drive
the front through the rest of the CWA.  Temps should trend still
warmer that day.
Models remain in poor agreement as far as what features follow
the trough and thus the forecast for Wed and Thu. A Pacific
cutoff low looks to move into the SW CONUS Tuesday, and another
cutoff low generally is shown to develop over the Rockies around
that time. Some form of blocking looks to take shape, but the
positions/movement of the lows affect the progress of the front. The
GFS solution depicts an open wave moving along the front and into
our area Thursday, with the ECMWF and Canadian indicative of a
slowly progressing cutoff or near cutoff low in the central CONUS,
with a wetter and more protracted precip event affecting our area
beginning by Thursday. A cooling trend is currently supported by
either solution beginning Thu which likely would continue thru
late week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period
for most sites. Calm winds should start to pick up after sunrise,
but remain light and VRB. Outside of the mountains, no vsby/cig
restrictions anticipated. IFR at KAVL improves quickly after 12z.
Expect the same situation Saturday morning for BR, so will keep a
TEMPO going from 09-12z. There is a slight chance for a shower or
TSRA Friday afternoon at KAVL, but chances are too low for a mention
at this time.
Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday, mainly in the
mountains, before dry weather returns to start the week. Rain
chances may return Tuesday thru midweek. Fog and stratus possible
each morning in the mountain valleys.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...CP

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion