Dumont, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

288
FXUS64 KLUB 270515
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Warm and mostly dry conditions to continue through the forecast
   period .
- The coolest day will be Monday as a weakening upper low brings
   an increase in cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Upper level ridging will shift slightly eastward Saturday which will
allow an upper trough over Arizona to begin moving slowly eastward.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to form across New
Mexico as lift downstream from the Arizona low interacts with
abundant monsoonal moisture streaming northward from the eastern
Pacific. Some of this precipitation could reach the western counties
just this side of the state line, but the bulk of the activity is
expected to stay to the west of the state line both Saturday and
tonight. Progged thickness values change little Saturday relative to
Friday with little change in high temperatures. An increase in mid
to high cloud cover associated with the precipitation across new
Mexico could limit temperatures across the western zones while a
slight uptick in thickness values east of the Caprock could result
in warmer temperatures on the order of 2 to 3 degrees relative to
Friday`s highs. Similar reasoning will apply with overnight lows
Saturday night, running close to those of Friday night/Saturday
morning around 2-6 degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
An upper level low over western sections of the Desert Southwest
early this weekend will open and lift northeastward across the Four
Corners Sunday night and then quickly dampen with little evidence of
it by the time it reaches the central High Plains. A few showers and
thunderstorms could bleed over into the far western parts of the
forecast area Sunday into Sunday with an even less chance Monday
afternoon. A slight downtick in temperatures is possible Sunday as
cloud cover continues to over mainly western zones. With the trough
moving over northern New Mexico on Monday lower heights/thicknesses
and increase in cloud cover point to the potential for the coolest
temperatures of the forecast period, although only near normal
values for the end of September. Temperatures will rebound sharply
Tuesday into Wednesday as upper level ridging builds in quickly
behind the departed upper trough with highs potentially pushing ten
degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...51

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion