Dyer, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

828
FXUS65 KVEF 241116 RRA
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
417 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* One more day of low impact weather with dry conditions and near
  normal temperatures today. Temperature drop below normal for the
  rest of the forecast after today.
* Precipitation chances are expected at times Thursday through this
  weekend as anomalous moisture interacts with an upper level
  disturbance. Details and weather impacts continue to remain low
  confidence.
* On Thursday, the greatest risk for thunderstorms will be in
  northeast Clark, southern Lincoln, and northern Mohave County, but
  could change depending on how clouds develop in the morning. And
  storms Thursday could contain lightning, sudden gusty winds, heavy
  rain with isolated flash flooding.
* Moisture lingers into early next week which could allow for
  continued precipitation chances, however low confidence in next
  week`s forecast at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION....Through Early Next Week.
Weak ridging remains over the region today. Under mostly sunny
skies, temperatures will sit near normal for this time of the year.
North to northeast winds will be lower than yesterday`s winds.
Continuing to watch how an incoming weather system will interact
with anomalously high moisture through the rest of the forecast
period. Currently- satellite imagery shows the upper level low
spinning off the California coast, with a notable amount of
lightning in the rain bands rotating around the center of the low.
This low will drive precipitation chances through early next week as
it moves inland through southern Nevada then eventually into central
Arizona- but unfortunately how that unfolds still remains uncertain
with models all having slightly different (but important)
differences in track and strength. Starting tonight- showers may
develop in the Sierra and Inyo County, however rainfall amounts
overnight even at the 90th percentile suggest light rain and low
impacts. On Thursday, models suggests shower and thunderstorm
chances will focus in the Southern Great Basin and northern Mohave
County as upper level diffluence increases when the low moves
inland. Areas further south could be limited in precipitation
chances not only due to less forcing but models also suggest a dry
slot will shove in from southern California around the base of the
low. Confidence remains low though in how widespread showers and
thunderstorms will be on Thursday though. At the moment- the best
chances for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon should be in northeast
Clark and northern Mohave counties as instability increases with
ample morning sunshine, however this could change if more clouds
than expected move in. If thunderstorms develop, sudden gusty winds
would be possible due to dry low levels. Any better developed rain
on Thursday could all contain moderate to heavy rainfall, which
could lead to isolated flash flooding.
Friday night through Sunday, the unsettled weather pattern continues
as the low meanders through Southern Nevada into Arizona. With
anomalous moisture and increasing forcing, chances for precipitation
are expected at times through the weekend. Details beyond that
continue to change and remain uncertain. Friday may see lower
precipitation chances before PWATs surge then peak this weekend,
suggesting an increasing in precipitation chances Saturday and
Sunday. EFIs highlight areas south of the I-15 with the potential
for anomalously high rain amounts this weekend- while NBM 50th
percentile 24-hr QPF is not overly impactful this weekend, there is
a large spread between the 50th and 90th percentile and some 90th
percentile 24-hr rainfall amounts suggest at least minor rainfall
impacts. Will continue to monitor though as precipitation chances,
amounts, and potential impacts will depend on the exact track and
strength of the low. Expect fine tuning of impacts and forecast
details as we get closer to later in the week, stay tuned.
After Sunday, models consensus diverges even further with what the
upper level disturbance does as it moves into Arizona. Ensembles do
show PWATs remaining above normal through early next week though- so
the continued presence of moisture should keep rain chances in the
forecast, especially in the afternoons with any diurnal heating.
Temperatures after today will cool with high temperatures dropping
to below normal levels Thursday through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable winds will continue through mid-morning before veering
to the northeast around 15Z.  Sustained winds of 8 to 10 knots are
expected, with a 50 percent chance of occasional gusts to 17 knots
through 21Z. Typical southwest winds less than 7 knots are likely
after sunset.  VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period,
with only a FEW mid-level clouds with bases AOA 12kft from late
morning through early evening.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Overall, winds will
follow typical diurnal directional trends at all regional TAF sites
today. Occasional gusts are likely across southeast California and
the Colorado River Valley, with the highest speeds expected at KBIH
and KIFP. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with
only a FEW mid-level clouds with bases AOA 12kft from late morning
through early evening across southern Nevada, along the Sierra and
across the western Mojave Desert.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Planz
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion