Elba, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

569
FXUS61 KBUF 242148
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
548 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Several waves of light to moderate rain showers will pass across the
region tonight through Thursday, bringing beneficial rainfall to the
drought stricken area. A few rumbles of thunder will also be
possible within these waves of precipitation. Rain showers will
taper off Friday behind a cold front, with a large area of Canadian
surface high pressure bringing another extended period of fair
weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Water Vapor imagery this evening displays two waves of low
pressure, one over Lake Erie and a second nearing NW Arkansas.
These waves along a wavy surface frontal boundary will bring a
period of beneficial rain showers to our region...first this
evening through the mid overnight hours, and then the second
wave through the day Thursday.
Instability of MUCAPE values 500 to 1000 J/KG with the first
wave...and then again inland Thursday afternoon behind a warm front
will allow for a few rumbles of thunder, though wind profiles are
not supportive of severe storms.
The convective nature of the showers tonight will bring uneven
rainfall amounts, but in general amounts will range from a half to
one inch tonight through Thursday, with the higher totals towards
the eastern Lake Ontario region...which will lie north of the warm
front on Thursday.
The rain showers Thursday will be a longer duration of time, with
morning fog/drizzle yielding to a period of rain showers with the
warm front pushing into WNY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday night through Friday a sharp mid level trough will cross
the eastern Great Lakes. The bulk of the rain will be found well
ahead of the mid level trough in association with low pressure and
attendant cold front moving east across eastern NY and New England
Thursday night through early Friday. Farther west, a few showers
will linger Thursday night mainly east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
from wrap around moisture and modest lake induced instability. These
showers will largely end by Friday morning, although a few scattered
showers may persist Friday across the North Country in closer
proximity to the departing trough. Morning clouds from lake effect
and upslope flow will give way to some sunshine later Friday.
A surface ridge will then build into the Ohio Valley and New England
Friday night through Saturday night, bringing a return to dry
weather. A closed low will drift north through the Mid Atlantic
states over the weekend, but any direct impacts from rain will
remain well south and east of the area, with just some high clouds
streaming north into the eastern Great Lakes at times.
Temperatures will remain above average through the end of the week,
with highs in the mid 70s for lower elevations Friday and Saturday,
with lows generally in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another long period of dry weather will start this weekend and
continue through most, if not all of next week as the pattern
amplifies with a blocking ridge taking up residence over the eastern
US. Another long lasting period of dry weather will exacerbate
ongoing drought conditions across the region.
It will turn quite warm again Sunday through Monday, with highs
approaching 80 for lower elevations. A dry backdoor cold front will
then move south across the area later Monday, with a cooler airmass
arriving for the middle of next week with temperatures dropping back
to a little below average by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The first of two waves along a wavy frontal boundary over our region
will bring a period of showers, and possible rumble of thunder to
our region this evening through the mid overnight hours. Flight
conditions have started to lower to MVFR (at JHW so far)...and then
LIFR/IFR late tonight and into Thursday behind this wave as the
atmosphere saturates and winds become light. Low clouds and fog,
especially across higher terrain may linger into at least the early
afternoon on Thursday.
The second wave of rain showers will pass across the TAF region
Thursday with poor visibilities in drizzle/low clouds of IFR/LIFR
improving to MVFR in the rain...while low clouds and ceiling heights
linger in the IFR/MVFR range. There will remain a low chance for a
few rumbles of thunder Thursday afternoon within marginal
instability profiles.
Outlook...
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a few showers ending through the day.
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A series of weak surface lows will pass across the Lower Lakes
tonight and Thursday...with winds generally remaining from the east.
This easterly flow will create a moderate chop on the western Lake
Ontario waters tonight and Thursday morning of 2 to 3 feet. The
second low will cross the eastern Great Lakes Thursday afternoon,
carrying a cold front across the Lower Lakes...with the winds
backing to westerly behind the front. Westerly winds will continue
Friday, though at speeds of 10 to 15 knots leaving waves just shy of
small craft criteria.
Surface high pressure passes by to the north Friday night and then
off into the Canadian maritimes Saturday. Light winds and wave
action will prevail as we head into the weekend.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion