Elim, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

709
FXUS62 KCHS 062146
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
546 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region today. A cold front
is expected to move through late Sunday. The front should stall
offshore through the middle of next week, while high pressure
prevails to the north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Convection approaching the CSRA and east-central Georgia should
largely remain west of the area this evening, although a brief
shower or two could impact parts of Allendale, Screven and
Jenkins County. 06/13z NBM pops are below mentionable thresholds
and were maintained given no active DSS events are ongoing and
local messaging is not impacted.
A cold front will continue to approach the forecast area from the
west through much of tonight. During the evening, a cluster or two
of showers and thunderstorms may track east of the Fall Line of GA
and SC ahead of the cold front. This activity is expected to
dissipate before reaching the forecast area. Near term guidance
times the front push over SE GA/SC during the pre-dawn hours
Sunday morning. As the front approaches, mid and high clouds
should gradually increase from the west through the overnight
hours. Light winds, narrow dewpoint depressions, and late
arrival of cloud cover may yield some patchy fog across extreme
SE GA before daybreak. Low temperatures are forecast to range
from the low 70s inland to the mid 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: Broad troughing will prevail over the eastern CONUS as a
cold front at the surface approaches the region slowly from the
west. Ahead of the front moisture will surge, with PWATs reaching
1.7-1.8" by Sunday afternoon. The timing of the front looks to be
later in the afternoon, allowing a sea breeze to form. Both the 12Z
HRRR and HREF show convection initially initiating along the sea
breeze, with an increase in coverage as the cold front approaches.
Models are showing DCAPE values around 600-800 J/kg, which in
addition to ML CAPE values around 1500 J/kg could result in some
strong to severe thunderstorms. Additionally, given high PWAT
values, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. High temperatures
will reach into the upper 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows in the
60s.
Monday and Tuesday: Troughing will prevail over the southeastern
states aloft through mid week. At the surface the aforementioned
front will stall just offshore, while high pressure builds into the
region from the north. This pattern will yield a tight pressure
gradient, with gusty NE winds along the immediate coastline.
Additionally, precipitation should be limited to the coastal counties
with 20-30% PoPs each afternoon. The inland extent of the
precipitation will be determined by the positioning of the stalled
front. High temperatures will only reach into the upper 70s to low
80s due to increased cloud cover and steady NE flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Troughing will remain the dominant synoptic feature aloft through
the end of the week, while the stalled front remains offshore. There
is a chance that a weak coastal low could develop along the stalled
boundary mid week. If a low ends up developing precipitation chances
would be higher Wednesday, especially along the coastal counties.
The current forecast features PoPs around 30-40% each afternoon.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal, given the NE flow
and increased cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
07/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI: VFR for much of the period. Shallow ground fog and
possibly some patchy stratus could impact the terminals prior to
daybreak. Best chances are at KJZI given its proximity of the
Stono River. No major impacts are expected. The risk for
showers/tstms will increase mid-late afternoon Sunday as a cold
front approaches and the sea breeze meanders inland. Impact
probabilities are increasing, so VCTS was indicated after 19-20z
for both terminals. The introduction of TEMPO or prevailing
groups for TSRA may need to be considered with later TAF cycles.
KSAV: VFR for much of the period. Similar to the past few
mornings, there is a low end risk for shallow ground fog
impacting the terminal. Guidance has been too aggressive with
fog development over the past few nights and tonight looks
similar. Model condensation pressure deficits are a tad lower,
but still look to remain fairly high. A TEMPO group for 6SM MIFG
was introduced 09-12z for now. The risk for showers/tstms will
increase mid-late afternoon Sunday as a cold front approaches
and the sea breeze meanders inland. Impact probabilities are
increasing, so VCTS was indicated after 20z. The introduction of
TEMPO or prevailing groups for TSRA may need to be considered
with later TAF cycles.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm
could impact the terminals Sunday afternoon. Additional flight
restrictions are possible in afternoon showers/tstorms through
mid week.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: The marine zones will remain east of a front approaching
from the west. Conditions across the coastal waters will remain from
the ESE between 5 to 10 kt. Seas will remain around 2 ft.
Extended Marine: A cold front will push offshore Sunday night into
Monday, stalling across the marine waters through the middle of next
week. High pressure will dominate at the surface across the land
zones, yielding a pinched pressure gradient between the high
pressure and the stalled front. Northeast winds will begin gusting
to 20-25 knots Monday morning and persisting through Tuesday night.
Seas are forecast to build as well, with 5 to 6 ft by Tuesday
afternoon. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for all
marine zones outside of the Charleston Harbor beginning Monday
morning. Gusts could come close to 25 knots in the Charleston
Harbor, and a Small Craft Advisory cannot be ruled out.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels will continue to increase through the
weekend, getting as high as 6.4 ft MLLW by the Sunday evening
high tide cycle within the Charleston Harbor. However, winds
will not be particularly favorable for large tidal departures
during this time period but observed peak tides could still top
out around 7 ft MLLW at Charleston each evening through Sunday.
Astronomical tide levels will remain high through the middle of
next week, given a full moon (9/7) and lunar perigee (9/10). A
notable surge of northeast flow along the coast is expected to
produce increased tidal departures through at least the middle
of next week which will result in an increasing probability of
minor to moderate coastal flooding along portions of the SC
coast. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the lower SC and
GA coast beginning Monday evening.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion