Elm Springs, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

920
FXUS64 KTSA 302339
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Patchy fog could impact Wednesday morning commute.
- Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures this week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The grids were updated to expand the potential areas for patchy
fog development late tonight into Wednesday morning. Clearing
skies and light winds, along with temperatures falling close to
the dewpoint by morning, will set the stage for fog to develop.
This appears most likely to occur over or near lakes and in the
valleys. The fog could be locally dense and may impact the
Wednesday morning commute. The fog will burn off quickly after
sunrise tomorrow morning.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
An upper level low passing across the area will contribute to
partly to mostly cloudy conditions through this evening. Most of
the moisture is centered at or above 600 hPa, with much drier air
below that, so areas of virga showers or sprinkles are possible,
but measurable rain at the surface is unlikely. High temperatures
will peak in the low to mid 80s. Skies will clear out this
evening allowing for somewhat cooler temperatures overnight,
generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Upper level ridging rebuilds across the area Wednesday,
strengthening into Friday. This will allow for temperatures to
rebound slightly. A few areas may reach 90 F in eastern Oklahoma
Thursday to Friday, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. A transient and
weak upper level wave will brush the area Thursday, with perhaps a
couple of afternoon showers in the higher terrain of northwest
Arkansas, but otherwise dry conditions are anticipated.
Upper level ridging retreats slightly over the weekend as a system
impinges on the area from the southwest. But as it never really gets
very close, dry conditions will most likely persist. If models
trended closer with the system, we could introduce a slight chance
of showers across eastern OK, but for now this seems unlikely. Lower
level thermal profiles only cool slightly, so temperatures may drop
a couple of degrees, but will remain well above normal for this time
of year.
Towards the end of the forecast period ensemble guidance diverges. A
large subset of guidance shows a continuation of the current regime.
A smaller subset allows a trough to finally push into the area
bringing cooler conditions as well as a chance of rain showers.
Mostly leaned towards the warmer solution, but at least hinted at
the potential pattern shift towards day 7.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The main potential impact to aviation this period will be fog late
tonight into Wednesday morning with clearing skies and light winds.
There is a signal in some data that patchy fog will develop over
or near lakes and valleys. The MOS guidance hit the fog potential
hard at KFYV, indicating dense fog. With a light east wind, KROG
will also be prone to fog as it forms over or near Beaver Lake
and slides west toward the airport, similar to last night. Also
inserted at least tempo MVFR fog mention at other valley sites
such as KBVO, KRVS, and KFSM. Aside from the impacts of fog, VFR
conditions will prevail with light winds.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  87  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  88  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   59  88  61  90 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   56  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  86  58  85 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   58  84  59  85 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   60  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  87  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   60  87  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion