Elmo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

691
FXUS64 KFWD 231055
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will move into North Texas later today with
  increasing storm chances through tonight across much of the
  region. Some storms could be severe with damaging winds and
  hail.
- Near normal temperatures will return Wednesday through
  Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The forecast remains on track regarding the arrival of a cold
front and thunderstorm chances later this evening into tonight. A
few storms may become strong to severe with primarily a large
hail and damaging wind threat. The potential for localized flash
flooding and excessive rainfall is increasing with the most recent
suite of high-resolution guidance highlighting a 10% chance for
5+" totals through Wednesday morning, primarily east of I-35. Make
sure to check the weather before you go to bed tonight and have
several ways to receive warnings!
Langfeld
Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/
Convection associated with surface low pressure in western
Oklahoma and a shortwave trough ejecting over the Southern Plains
will largely remain north of the Red River tonight into Tuesday
morning. This area of low pressure will gradually shift eastward
across the state of Oklahoma during the day Tuesday as upper
troughing amplifies and dives south across the Rockies. This will
send our first notable cold front of the fall south through North
and Central Texas late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. We
may start to see some isolated shower activity northwest of the
Metroplex by mid-morning as low 70s dewpoints surge northward and
interact with this surface boundary.
By Tuesday afternoon, an area of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will
develop along and north of I-20 ahead of the aforementioned cold
front. Scattered deep convection is likely after 4PM Tuesday
afternoon across our far North Texas counties with an expected
southeast movement through the evening as the front pushes further
toward the I-20 corridor. Although the more impressive wind
fields will remain north of our forecast area, strengthening shear
as a mid/upper jet max enters the Southern Plains will promote a
large hail and damaging wind threat in this initial activity. The
severe weather threat will likely maximize in the 5-10PM timeframe
Tuesday evening north of I-20. Forecast hodographs are
highlighting a few-hour window for a low end tornado threat north
and northeast of the Metroplex where low-level winds remain backed
until the front arrives. However, there is potential that the
cold front advances quicker than currently forecast, undercutting
the storms and greatly diminishing the overall severe potential.
Nonetheless, plenty of elevated instability will likely support an
isolated large hail threat even behind the frontal boundary. The
general expectation is for storms to grow upscale through Tuesday
night and offer more of a localized heavy rainfall and gusty wind
threat as the cold front shifts southeast. Expect this line of
storms to approach the I-20 corridor and the Metroplex around
9-11PM, pushing into Central Texas and the Waco-Temple-Killeen
area after 2-3AM Tuesday night. Scattered showers and storms are
likely south of I-20 well into Wednesday morning as the region
remains downstream of the main trough axis and associated
synoptic-scale lift.
The cold front will push toward the Texas Gulf Coast Wednesday
afternoon with rain chances rapidly diminishing across the Brazos
Valley and our Central Texas counties during the latter half of
the day. Much cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday afternoon
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s behind the cold front.
Enjoy the fall temperatures!
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 119 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/
/Thursday and Beyond/
All rain should push south of our forecast area by Wednesday
evening leaving behind a much drier airmass and little to no rain
chances through the remainder of the week. Persistent east-
northeasterly flow will keep afternoon highs in the 80s through
the upcoming weekend as well. Overnight lows will finally drop
into the 60s region-wide with even some mid to upper 50s possible
across our rural locations west of I-35 Thursday and Friday
morning.
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
MVFR/IFR stratus has started to surge northward into Central Texas
this morning. Expect intermittent lower cigs at KACT for the next
several hours before scattering out by 15Z-16Z this morning. The
bulk of these cigs should remain east of the D10 terminals this
morning, however FEW to SCT MVFR cigs may inch toward KDAL after
12Z. Southerly winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts will prevail
through this afternoon ahead of a cold front progged to push
toward the I-20 corridor later this evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and ahead of this frontal boundary later today with VCTS timing
starting in D10 generally after 03Z this evening. It is a bit
uncertain how long storms will last and how widespread storms will
become in D10 tonight. Therefore, VCTS will remain in the TAF for
now, but a TEMPO or prevailing group may be added in future
forecast updates if confidence increases in TSRA impacts at the
terminals.
Langfeld
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  71  80  65  82 /   0  60  40  10   5
Waco                96  74  82  65  84 /   0  50  70  20  10
Paris               93  70  79  63  80 /  10  70  40  10   5
Denton              95  68  80  61  82 /  10  60  30  10   5
McKinney            94  70  79  63  82 /   5  60  30  10   5
Dallas              96  72  81  66  83 /   0  60  40  10   5
Terrell             94  72  80  63  82 /   5  60  60  10   5
Corsicana           95  75  83  66  84 /   5  50  70  20   5
Temple              96  73  85  65  85 /   5  30  70  30  10
Mineral Wells       98  69  81  61  84 /  10  60  40  10   5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion