Embry Hills, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

705
FXUS62 KFFC 231832
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- A few thunderstorms are possible across far north Georgia this
   afternoon, with more widespread thunderstorms in north and
   central Georgia Wednesday evening through Friday.
- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible each
   afternoon through the rest of the weekend.
- Last few 90 degree days of the year possible this week, before
   a weekend cool-off.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Southwest flow has begun across Georgia, reinforcing the stationary
front across the northwest CWA and expanding eastward through the
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
through the afternoon today. Peak CAPE values of 1000 J/Kg in far
northwest Georgia and modest shear values will limit severe
potential, though a strong storm cannot be ruled out completely.
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be well above average with most
locations in 90th percentile. The warmest day will be tomorrow with
a forecast high of 92 in the Atlanta area (record of 93). The good
news is that, climatologically, the number of times Atlanta has
reached at least 90 degrees after October 1st (since 1878) is 22.
With temperatures looking to cool outside the short term outlook,
this could very well be the last 90 of the year (fingers crossed).
Moving into Wednesday evening, a cold-front and upper level
trough will begin to push through the area. This will likely bring
a diffuse line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main
front. CAPE values will likely be limited given the evening and
overnight timing however, with upper level support and a brief
window of CAPE near 1000J/Kg, a strong storm cannot be ruled out
in northwest Georgia.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A cold front will be traversing Georgia on Thursday morning,
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the state. Widespread activity
is anticipated through Friday. Rainfall totals on the order of
around an inch are likely for the majority of northern and central
Georgia; locally higher amounts are possible, up to around 3-4
inches, with the greatest risk for the heavier rains being over
north Georgia.
Though there is somewhat of a drying trend, after Friday, model
guidance suggests that moisture levels will remain near or above
seasonally typical values. Both the GFS and the ECMWF suggest
precipitable water values remain at least around 1.1 to 1.4 inches
through the weekend into early next week. Sounding climatology has
the median value for the end of September being around 1.1 inches,
and the 75th percentile is around 1.4 inches. In terms of the
details of the forecast beyond Friday, there is only a medium level
of confidence. The ECMWF maintains higher levels of moisture over
the southeastern United States. One factor in this difference is the
ECMWF bringing a weak disturbance with tropical moisture nearer to
the coast this weekend, putting it north of the Bahamas and east of
Charleston, SC on Sunday afternoon. It would appear that this
disturbance is likely the remnants of a tropical wave that is just
east of the Windward Islands (the ECMWF shows this particular
disturbance coalescing over the Mona Passage to north of Hispaniola
Thursday into Friday - while this is not an unreasonable scenario,
it is a lower confidence scenario). Additionally, there are some
differences in the mid-to upper-level low that is forecast to be
ejected off of a trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley
at the end of the week. For example, the GFS shows this closed low
developing by early Friday morning, while the ECMWF is about 12-18
hours behind. Jet streaks associated with this feature are likely to
influence the convective potential, and are location dependent. It
is likely that the moisture levels will be sufficient to combine
with what instability is available to result in some isolated to
possibly scattered thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings
through the weekend. Moisture levels are likely to be somewhat
higher over eastern Georgia, and so the potential for convection
will be greater there - but will likely only be an around 20% chance
by Sunday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR through period. Winds vrb03kt to SW at 3-8kts during day, light
and variable overnight. Winds return out of SW at 3 to 8kts late
Wednesday morning. Low precipitation chances remain in far north
Georgia away from forecast sites.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
SM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  90  69  83 /   0  10  20  60
Atlanta         71  92  72  83 /   0  10  30  70
Blairsville     63  82  65  74 /  10  20  60  80
Cartersville    69  92  70  81 /   0  10  50  80
Columbus        70  94  71  86 /   0   0  10  70
Gainesville     68  89  70  80 /   0  10  40  70
Macon           69  94  70  89 /   0   0   0  40
Rome            69  92  70  83 /   0  20  70  80
Peachtree City  68  92  69  83 /   0  10  20  70
Vidalia         70  94  71  94 /   0   0   0  30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....CRS
AVIATION...SM

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion