Estelline, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

995
FXUS64 KLUB 292323
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Slight chances for rain showers on the caprock this afternoon.
- Hot temperatures and dry conditions expected the rest of the
   week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A well defined short wave trough on water vapor imagery was passing
overhead early this afternoon bringing weak large scale ascent to
the region. The trough axis and subsidence will sweep into the area
later this afternoon ending what little precipitation chances we
already have. This lift was acting upon a slug of mid-level moisture
surging overhead in the meridional flow ahead of the trough axis.
Very light rain showers will continue with this shortwave until the
subsidence moves overhead and moisture moves eastward. So far,
gauges have only recorded a few hundredths of an inch across the
southwestern South Plains. Additionally, the cloud cover for much of
this afternoon will keep temperatures near seasonal averages. Low
level easterly upslope flow will likely generate showers and
thunderstorms on the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico this
afternoon. However, given the subsidence overhead and decreasing
moisture, this activity is not expected to make it into West Texas.
Short wave ridging in the wake of the trough will bring rising
heights and warming temperatures for Tuesday back above seasonal
averages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Today`s light rain chances will be the only precipitation chances
for the week ahead. A closed low will be sitting over the eastern
Pacific through the week with an amplifying subtropical ridge over
northern Mexico into the Plains. Surface cyclogenesis and pressure
troughing in lee of the Rockies each afternoon this week may bring a
slight breeze in the afternoon hours. However, the ridge will be
responsible for increasing temperatures through the week into the
90s area wide by mid-week or about 15-20 degrees above seasonal
averages.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR. Few SHRA west of LBB and PVW are set to dissipate in the
coming hours followed by mid and high clouds clearing from W-E
after midnight. Outside chance of some morning fog near PVW but
this remains too conditional for any further mention.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion