Ezra, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

523
FXUS63 KPAH 270718
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
218 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions expected through next week.
- Temps will remain a few degrees above normal through early
  week then come down to around normal mid to late week.
- Mid to late week forecast is more uncertain and will depend on
  what happens to a tropical disturbance off the Carolina coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Upper level trof will continue to move east this weekend and behind
it upper level ridging builds in from the Plains. Sfc high pressure
will continue to build through the weekend. This will keep things
dry for the weekend with highs about 4-8 degrees above normal (into
the mid to upper 80s). Some fog is possible this morning primarily
along the Mississippi River. Some areas may see patchy dense fog,
will monitor for the need of an SPS or Dense Fog Advisory.
Starting the week off with ridging aloft and continued troughing to
the east. High pressure continues at the sfc and temps remain above
normal for the early week. Mid week on is more uncertain though and
will depend on what happens with the tropical disturbance that will
be off the Carolina coast by then. By Tuesday that disturbance off
the South Carolina coast may be upgraded to Tropical Storm Imelda.
The existing troughing over the East Coast may pull some of Imelda`s
moisture inland, but this will be a battle with Humberto (in the
Atlantic, east of Imelda) which is trying to pull Imelda back out to
sea. Right now models keep us dry, but we could see an increase in
cloud cover and humidity mid to late week along with temperatures
closer to normal should this tropical moisture get pulled this far
inland.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Despite the nearby presence of an upper level low to the south
and east, our terminals are more influenced by surface high
pressure that ridges directly overtop the airfields, providing
a prevailing stable, subsident circulation within the flight air
space. The result will be little more than FEW-SCT diurnally
driven bases that rises from the 5-7K FT AGL range over the
course of the heating hours. At night, clear skies and light
winds will contribute again to the development of patchy fog,
some of which could offer temporary late night/early daybreak
restrictions to vsbys. But if any impact the terminals, it will
be shallow and will disperse quickly after the sun rises.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion