Fairdealing, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

315
FXUS63 KPAH 191645
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like 90s persist into this weekend, then cool toward
  climatological normals in the lower half 80s next week.
- A transition toward a wetter pattern with daily rain chances
  will bring welcomed relief to ongoing drought conditions by
  the end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A synoptic scale metamorphosis toward a more active flow pattern
occurs over the weekend, heading into next week. It sets us up
for a reintroduction of smallish rain chances that grows toward
its peak in the high chance-low likely range by the start of the
new week. While model differences exist, it is looking
increasingly like this pattern shift will lead to a more
fruitful precipitation duration, or at least chances thereof,
that carries thru the entirety of the week and thereby offers
some real relief to our exacerbating drought conditions. PW`s
rising nearly a third, toward the 75th percentile, will assist
with overall pcpn efficiency...as weekly storm totals push into
the 1-2" range on average; some localized higher amounts in
stronger storms may potentially bring more appreciable relief.
Coincident with the evolution toward the wetter pattern will
come more clouds, lower overall heights, and a much welcomed
cooldown in high temperatures toward climo norms. Highs still
reaching/exceeding 90F will persist this weekend, then fall back
toward the lower half 80s on the daily for next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The main concern this afternoon will be isolated thunderstorms
near KCGI/KPAH/KMVN. Coverage will not be great, but any storms
that develop will be capable of causing MVFR vsby reductions and
gusty winds. Mid to high level clouds prevail into the
overnight with a stray shower not ruled out, especially along
I-64. Clouds scatter out Saturday morning with light & variable
winds turning south around 4-6 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion