Fargo, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

599
FXUS62 KJAX 221145
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
745 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday all Local Beaches
- Inland Heat Indices 100-105F Tuesday through Friday
- Daily Isolated Thunderstorm Risk Returns Today
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Isolated showers over the offshore Georgia waters will further
organize towards sunrise and spread scattered showers onshore
from Mayport north along the SE GA coast as the coastal trough
to the east shifts to shore through late morning. INcreased high
level clouds near the coast will continue to fan north and east
while some more breaks in the cloud cover will help low ceilings
and fog, locally dense, forming inland well west of I-95 where
winds will become near calm and drier air away from the coast
allows temperatures stay in the 65-70 degree range.
High pressure will weaken to the NNE today with ENE winds 10-15 mph
along the coast and 5-10 mph inland expected as showers push inland
with widely scattered showers and T`storms during the afternoon
proceeding westward with the Atlantic seabreeze traveling towards
I-75 and US-441. A mix of low, middle, and high level clouds will
keep mostly cloudy skies in the picture through the day. Highs
will be in the mid 80s at the coast, upper 80s for most inland
locations except for low 90s south of I-10 over NE FL and west
of US-441 in SE GA.
Tonight, skies will become partly cloudy as high level clouds thin
out with patchy fog developing away from the coast as winds inland
weaken to near calm. Lows will be in the upper 60s inland along
and north of I-10 and the low 70s over the SE GA coast and north
central FL areas with low/mid 70s over the NE FL coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Daily rain chances from the Atlantic coast each morning to inland
northeast Florida into the afternoon as sea breezes progress
inland an interact with diurnal instability with elevated moisture
across the area. Precipitable water rises above average into the
1.8 to 2 inch range which will fuel scattered showers and isolated
mainly afternoon and evening storms that develop where boundary
mergers occur. Weak storm motion (< 5 kts) will enable both sea
breezes to press inland, with slow and erratic storm motion
producing localized pockets of heavy rainfall. Tuesday, marginal
bulk shear and some mid/upper level lift associated with a short
wave trough could support a few stronger storms capable of gusty
wet downbursts, mainly across northeast Florida. Wednesday, a
short wave mid level ridge builds over the region which will limit
thunderstorm coverage more compared to Tuesday, but a few
afternoon and evening storms are possible inland where sea breezes
merge. Rain chances rain of 20% or less were advertised along the
coast by late morning to 30-50% across inland northeast Florida
into the afternoon, with < 15% across southeast Georgia. Rainfall
chances fade after sunset each evening inland with the loss of
diurnal instability.
The main weather story will be building heat, with high
temperatures warming into the low-mid 90s from inland to the
beaches by Wednesday, nearing record highs. See climate section
below for record information. Elevated dew points combined with
the heat will create heat index values in the lower 100s inland to
low-mid 90s at the beaches. At this time, heat index values are
expected to remain below local heat advisory criteria (108F-112F).
Overnight lows will also moderate into the low to mid 70s by
Wednesday night, with a few upper 60s well inland.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Above normal heat and heat indices continue Thursday as southwest
steering flow develops. Sea breezes will continue to trigger
afternoon showers and storms, with increased rain chances across
southeast Georgia with as deeper southwest flow lifts moisture
farther north ahead of a deepening long wave trough across the
eastern CONUS. Friday rain chances increase to 50-60% across the
entire forecast area with deep moisture in place and the
approaching long wave trough driving a surface front across the
southeast region. Late Friday into Saturday, model consensus shows
the surface front beginning to stall across the local area with
the upper level trough only slowly edging eastward toward the
Atlantic coast. This could continue elevated rain chances daily
this weekend with the stalling front, but for now trended toward
drier conditions across southeast Georgia and scattered
showers/isolated storms across northeast Florida.
Temperatures will begin to trend cooler into the weekend with
increased cloud cover/storminess, with highs in the 80s and lows
in the 60s.
The tropical Atlantic is getting a little more active. There is a
30% chance of potential tropical cyclone formation in the 3-7 day
time frame as a tropical wave approaching the Leeward Island today
begins a northward turn later this week near the Bahamas. At this
time, east coast troughing looks to keep this system offshore of the
southeast Atlantic sea board based on ensemble model runs. Indirect
marine and surf zone impacts are possible. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts at hurricanes.gov
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Patchy fog and low stratus should lift and dissipate in the next
hour. Northeast winds around 5-10 kts prevail today with passing
showers shifting onshore through the day. Best chances for showers
are coastal and JAX metro sites. Coverage of T`storm not high
enough for VCTS mention, but should be monitored with subsequent
updates. Winds calm after 00Z with another chance for inland
fog/stratus after 08Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
East northeasterly winds will continue today as high pressure to
the north northeast begins to slowly retreat eastward while coastal
troughing weakens this morning over the waters weakens and moves
onshore bringing isolated to scattered coastal showers over the
Southeast Georgia waters to the coast before sunrise. Tuesday,
winds become more easterly and lighter as weak high pressure moves
southward down the U.S. eastern seaboard. Wednesday into Thursday,
high pressure will extend across south Florida as a surface front
approaches from the west-northwest. Increasing showers expected
Friday into Saturday as the front arrives into the area waters
bringing elevated southerly winds and potentially exercise
caution conditions.
Rip Currents: Expanded the high rip current risk to include
Southeast Georgia Beaches in addition to Northeast Florida
today into Tuesday due to increasing long wave periods with
surf heights of 3-4 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Trends in the past 24 hours show portions of the St Johns river
peak water levels rising well into action stage between
1.2-1.4 ft MHHW. Through at this time PETSS guidance is not
showing a strong signal for Minor flooding which is
exceeding 1.5 ft MHHW (above dry ground) today, so holding off
on a Coastal Flood Advisory for this forecast. However, will
continue to monitor observations and new guidance for a coastal
flood advisory Tuesday or Wednesday over the lower St Johns river
as light onshore flow continues preventing river drainage this week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record highs and high minimum temperatures for the next
few days are below:
DATE     9/23     9/24     9/25     Normals
JAX      95/1925  94/2019  96/2019  High: 86
         78/1933  78/1951  76/1930  Low: 69
CRG      91/2016  93/2019  95/2019  High: 85
         79/2005  77/2017  76/1998  Low: 71
GNV      97/1925  95/1997  96/1931  High: 87
         75/1933  75/1998  74/2010  Low: 68
AMG      94/2010  95/2019  98/1961  High: 86
         76/2000  74/2000  74/1988  Low: 65
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  68  92  68 /  30  10  10   0
SSI  84  72  86  72 /  30  10  20   0
JAX  88  71  91  72 /  40  10  30   0
SGJ  87  73  88  73 /  30  10  30  10
GNV  92  70  94  70 /  30  20  40  20
OCF  91  71  92  72 /  20  10  40  20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for GAZ154-166.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion