Farrar, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

968
FXUS62 KFFC 211039
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
639 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Key Messages:
- Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
      expected mainly across North GA.
- Warm, slightly above normal temperatures persist.
Mostly clear skies again this morning. Expecting some patchy
areas of fog around daybreak but they should burn off shortly
after sunrise. A high pressure wedge is building back down the
eastern seaboard into NE GA and should be entrenched across the
entire state by 12z-18z Today. This ridge/wedge will keep things
fairly stable across the region but we will see increased cloud
cover this afternoon with the moist easterly flow. Could also see
some isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening mainly across North GA due to the orographic affects of
the mountains. Any storms that develop should stay below severe
limits with instability indices staying fairly weak and the high
pressure ridge helping to cap things off. This ridge stays across
the area Monday so should be a similar situation tomorrow also.
High temps will be mainly in the 80s to near 90 Today and Monday
with some upper 70s in the NE GA mountains. Low temps will be in
the 60s.
01
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Key Messages:
- Showers and thunderstorms continue to trend more likely for the
later part of the upcoming week.
- Above average temperatures are expected to persist through
Wednesday, with near to just below average temperatures at the end
of the week due to rain and cloud cover.
As the long term period begins on Monday night, broad upper level
ridging will be centered offshore of the Atlantic Coast and
continuing to move eastward. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the
Mississippi River Valley will continue to approach from the west.
Between these two features, Georgia will be positioned underneath
southwesterly upper level flow, which will lead to advection of warm
and moist air into the forecast area. During the overnight hours
into Tuesday. Monday night into Tuesday, an anticyclonic rossby wave
break along the anticyclonic side of the upper jet is expected to
occur over the northwest CONUS. The resulting cutoff low that
develops will play an important role in how the forecast shapes up
in the mid to late parts of the week.
Guidance continues to come into better agreement on the timing and
evolution of this system. Over the course of the day on Tuesday, the
cutoff low will drop southeastward through the central Rockies into
the Great Plains. As this occurs, the axis of the aforementioned
trough will be displaced to the northeast towards the Tennessee
Valley region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be most
likely in the far northern tier on Tuesday afternoon, closest to the
base of the trough, as a result. After the morning begins in the low
to mid 60s on Tuesday, highs will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s
during the afternoon. On Wednesday, the cutoff low is expected
continue across the Great Plains towards the Southeast, with an
associated surface low progged to develop over the Ozark region on
Wednesday afternoon. This setup will keep Georgia underneath
southwesterly flow aloft through midweek, which will contribute to
the warmest day across the majority of the forecast area on
Wednesday, with highs forecast to rise into the upper 80s and low
90s in the majority of north Georgia and into the mid 90s in central
Georgia. These temperatures will be as much as 8-12 degrees above
climatological normals for late September. Dewpoints will
furthermore rise into the upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday.
Beyond this point, the latest model guidance indicates that the
cutoff low is most likely to deepen as it moves towards the western
Tennessee Valley region, while the developing surface low slowly
meanders to the northeast. A cold front extending southward from the
surface low is then progged to slowly advance towards the forecast
area, with chances for thunderstorms increasing accordingly late
Wednesday through Friday. PoPs between 40-60% are forecast to begin
in areas to the north of I-20 on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, followed by PoPs between 60-70% on Thursday as the frontal
boundary pushed into the area. Likelihood is increasing that we will
be seeing some beneficial rainfall (especially in light of
developing drought conditions). However, the exact coverage of
precipitation and rainfall amounts will ultimately depend on the
position and evolution of the upper level cutoff low and how it
influences the surface low, where uncertainty still remains towards
the end of the week. Increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms
combined with the advance of the cold front is likely to promote
cooling temperatures during the later parts of the week.
King
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Mostly clear skies expected across the area this TAF period.
Seeing some isolated areas of Haze around the area this morning
with VSBYs in the MVFR range but it should burn off just after
sunrise. We will see some more isolated SHRA/TSRA this afternoon
but thinking less activity than yesterday so keeping them out of
the TAFs. Winds are light and variable this morning but will be
mainly out of the E to SE in the 3-7kt range this afternoon and
evening.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         87  68  87  67 /  10   0  10   0
Blairsville     79  60  80  59 /  30  10  30  10
Cartersville    89  67  88  65 /  20  10  10   0
Columbus        92  68  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     85  65  85  64 /  10   0  10   0
Macon           88  65  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            90  67  90  66 /  30  20  20  10
Peachtree City  88  65  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         90  66  89  67 /   0   0  10   0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion