Felch, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

759
FXUS63 KMQT 120025
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
825 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog redevelops tonight into Friday morning.
- Dry through Friday, then a period of showers Friday night into
Saturday morning.
- Warmer temperatures mainly in the 70s from Friday onward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Visible satellite shows mostly clear skies across a wide swath of
the western U.P. and Lake Superior as arriving drier air has helped
to rapidly scour out remaining cloud cover in these areas today. Low
level clouds and patchy fog have been much more stubborn to erode
across central parts of the U.P. as low level NE flow off Lake
Superior has kept these areas more socked in through much of the
day. As a result, have seen a rather large spread in temperatures
across the area today with highs climbing into the upper 60s and low
70s in the west while highs struggle to get out of the 50s across
parts of Marquette and Alger Counties. Will likely see some patchy
fog development again tonight as low level moisture lingers and
subsidence remains in place under high pressure. Could even see fog
become more dense in a few locations across the west as clear skies
allow for more efficient radiational cooling processes, but do not
anticipate coverage to be widespread enough for any headlines
tonight at this time.
Dry weather continues into the day on Friday as high pressure
remains overhead, with temperatures climbing into the 70s across
much of Upper Michigan. Expect to see mid and high level cloud cover
increasing through the day ahead of a weak shortwave disturbance
moving over the top of the ridge. Latest guidance brings a slight
chance of precipitation to the far west in association with this
feature as early as late afternoon, but for the most part still
expect any rain to hold of until after sunset on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The weak clipper system will move overhead Friday evening, bringing
a quick round of rain to the area Friday night into Saturday
morning. A few embedded thunderstorms remain possible as models
continue to show elevated instability on the order of 300-500 J/kg
MUCAPE, but expect any storms to remain below severe thresholds.
Guidance continues to indicate rather minimal precipitation amounts
for most of the area with QPF values below a quarter inch, but the
convective element could bring locally heavier rainfall rates with
totals closer to a half inch in some area, particularly in the west
and along the WI border.
The area quickly dries out again by Saturday afternoon and remains
so through at least Sunday as the upper level ridge becomes re-
established overhead. Temperatures will continue to trend upward
into the 70s through the weekend, with NBM 75th percentile guidance
even indicating the potential for a few spots to reach 80 degrees
across the western half of the U.P. by Sunday. Little change heading
into the early part of next weak as ensembles show broad agreement
on the ridge axis nudging eastward across northern Ontario,
continuing to favor temperatures in the 70s to around 80 through
next Wednesday. Placement of the ridge continues to indicate the
potential for a few embedded shortwave disturbances to brush the
area and bring periods of showers or thunderstorms during the first
half of the week. NBM maintains a 15-30% chance of precipitation
during the first half of the week as a result.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Visibility restrictions will once again be the main threat at CMX
and SAW tonight as low level moisture lingers over the area.
Currently, CMX is reporting the worst conditions with VLIFR.
Meanwhile, SAW is still holding at VFR, but they will also
deteriorate to LIFR or worse after Fri 06Z. Both sites will
remain at LIFR/VLIFR through Fri 12Z with improvement back to
VFR by mid-morning. Elsewhere, MVFR conditions will be possible
at IWD, but confidence is not high enough to include mention at
this time. Will continue to monitor for next TAF issuance and
likely insert fog mention there as well.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Light winds of generally 10-15 kt or less expected through the
period as high pressure remains over the region. May see a short
lived period of 20 kt gusts over the western half of Lake Superior
on Sunday in response to tightening pressure gradient associated
with strengthening low pressure over the northern Plains, but do not
expect Small Craft Advisory criteria to be met at this time.
Satellite shows clouds rapidly dissipating over much of the western
half of the lake this afternoon, with the exception of the far
western tip where clouds and patchy fog have been more persistent.
Have thus allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire for all zones
aside from the western most zone, where the advisory has been
extended through Friday morning. A weak clipper will bring some
light rain and potentially a few thunderstorms to the area Friday
night into Saturday morning.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Friday for
     LSZ162.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...CB

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion