Fern Park, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

248
FXUS62 KMLB 250000
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues this
  afternoon with long period swells from distant Hurricane
  Gabrielle.
- Scattered shower and lightning storm chances through Thursday,
  increasing in coverage late week.
- Slightly above normal high temperatures for the interior
  through Friday reaching into the lower 90s each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Current-Tonight... GOES-19 PWAT imagery shows a tight moisture
gradient in place across central Florida with values of 1.6-1.7"
near and north of I-4 increasing to 2.0" across Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast. A scattered cumulus deck has developed with a well
defined east coast sea breeze seen on visible satellite imagery.
Isolated showers have developed along the Treasure Coast in
vicinity the deepest moisture. Models further signal showers and
storms initiating along a sea breeze collision late in the day.
Therefore, have kept a 30-40% mention of showers and storms across
the interior from Orlando southward late this afternoon and early
this evening. An isolated strong storm will be capable of
frequent lightning, wind gusts of 40-50 mph, small hail, and
locally heavy rainfall. Dry conditions are forecast overnight with
temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s.
Thursday-Friday... A mid-level trough slides into the eastern U.S.
with a closed low developing across the southeast U.S. by Friday. A
weak surface ridge axis across central Florida retreats seaward into
late week. In response, light and variable winds become offshore by
Friday. Moisture trends on Thursday continue to decrease compared to
what was forecast earlier this week. As a result, PoPs have trended
closer to 30-50% across the forecast area. A modeled band of locally
higher PWATs moves over central Florida Friday as a mid-level short
wave progresses eastward overhead. As a result, rain chances
increase to 50-60% Friday. Sounding analysis suggests a rather
limited environment for well organized storm development. However,
passing pulses and waves of vorticity aloft could enhance local
parameters, and isolated stronger storms remain possible,
particularly on Friday. Localized strong storms will be capable of
frequent lighting strikes, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, small hail, and
rainfall accumulations of 1-3". High temperatures range the upper
80s to near 90 along the coast with low 90s across the interior.
Lower rain chances could even let areas west of I-4 touch the mid
90s on Thursday. Peak heat index values are forecast generally
between 99-104 degrees, remaining hottest on Thursday. Low
temperatures continue to hold steady in the low to mid 70s.
Saturday-Wednesday (modified previous)...Getting interesting in the
tropics as all eyes look toward a potential tropical wave
approaching the southern Bahamas early on Saturday. While ensemble
clusters have high spread, general trends suggest the feature
could drift northeastward or parallel to the Florida coast (well
offshore) by Monday. Further spread continues Tuesday and
Wednesday with most ensemble suites favoring a northeast trend.
While this is still several days out consistency with models and
forecast confidence should improve as time draws near. At the very
least, interests in ECFL should be concerned regarding
marine/beach impacts. However, it remains a good reminder that we
are in peak hurricane season and to have an emergency plan in
place. Please continue to monitor the forecast for future updates.
Otherwise, the aforementioned mid-level low and associated vorticity
spins across the Southeast, Tennessee & Mississippi Valleys into
early next week while on a gradual weakening trend. There remains a
degree of uncertainty with both potential tropical development and
mid-upper level features during this period. This will also play
havoc with deep layer moisture. Best precip chances look to be
Saturday (50-70%). Otherwise, will continue PoPs in the scattered
category (30-50%) as a hedge.
High temps generally in the U80s to L90s thru the period. Peak heat
indices generally in the 90s to near 100F each day, a bit lower than
recent days. Lows remain consistent and mild in the L-M70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Long period swells continue to promote hazardous conditions near
inlets during out going tide. Otherwise, favorable boating
conditions are forecast. A weak surface ridge axis over the local
waters will keep light and variable winds Thursday before shifting
onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Light offshore winds then
develop Friday as surface ridging shifts eastward. Seas of 3-4 ft
late today diminish to become widely 2-3 ft Thursday, holding
late into the weekend. At least scattered shower and storm chances
are forecast each day, lingering into the overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A few lingering showers/storms this evening, mainly around MCO.
Have kept VCTS for MCO and ISM through 01Z. Otherwise, dry conditions
are forecast through the rest of the overnight period. E/ESE
winds will become light and variable overnight and remain light
through Thursday morning. Winds will then become E/ESE once again
into the afternoon as the sea breeze forms and pushes inland.
Overall coverage of convection on Thursday looks to be higher than
it was today. CAMs show scattered showers and storms forming along
the east coast sea breeze early in the afternoon with enhancement
along the sea breeze as it pushes inland. The east and west coast
sea breezes are then forecast to collide across central FL late
afternoon into early evening. Have added VCTS starting at 20Z
across the interior, and 17Z across the coastal sites. Convection
will first diminish along the coast late afternoon/early evening
as the sea breeze pushes inland, and then across the interior into
later evening. Thus, have ended VCTS around 23Z along the coast,
and around 04Z across the interior.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  73  89 /  10  30  30  60
MCO  74  94  74  92 /  10  50  20  60
MLB  75  89  74  89 /  10  30  40  50
VRB  74  90  73  90 /  10  40  40  50
LEE  75  92  74  91 /  10  40  20  60
SFB  74  93  74  92 /  10  50  20  60
ORL  75  93  75  92 /  10  50  20  60
FPR  73  90  72  90 /  10  40  40  50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Watson

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion