Fields Landing, California Weather Forecast Discussion

799
FXUS66 KEKA 222015
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
115 PM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier weather will gradually build in Sunday
through Tuesday. A troughing pattern could emerge by mid week with a
cut off low over coastal central CA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to push into the region
early this week allowing interior highs to crest back into the
90s with warmer interior valleys potentially getting into the low
100s by Tuesday. The marine layer onshore will likely become more
diurnal with better clearing in the afternoon, but with shallow
fog and stratus overnight, especially in wind protected areas such
as Humboldt Bay.
A closed low pressure system is forecast to approach central and
southern California by mid week. Recent model guidance indicate a 10
to 20 percent chance of wetting rain for Lake and Mendocino counties
by Wednesday afternoon. However, there has been continued forecast
uncertainty with how the trajectory and evolution of the closed low
will affect Northwest California.
The impacts of where this closed low ends are still uncertain. While
moderated temperature and greater cloud cover are a near certainty,
there is wide variability still for rain potential. While the low
will pull up moisture form the south, the general northeast flow
around the low will not be favorable for widespread wetting rain.
Showers that do form will most likely be around the rim of the
Sacramento Valley where the wind best aligns with topography as
orographic lift will mostly be a storm catalyst. The vast majority
of models suggest a cooler and more moist pattern through the end of
the month, with long range data showing above normal precipitation.
/JHW /EYS
&&
.AVIATION...Building high pressure has compressed the
marine layer and brought low stratus and fog to the coastal
terminals and surrounding river valleys this morning. Satellite late
this morning is showing the stratus retreating to the immediate
coast. VFR conditions are likely everywhere by early afternoon as
stratus retreats. An even shallower marine layer along with offshore
winds aloft complicates the coastal stratus tonight. If any does
form, ceilings will likely be LIFR with low visibilities. ACV is
slightly more likely to see stratus, but stronger offshore winds in
Del Norte lower stratus potential at CEC slightly. Inland areas are
likely to remain VFR through the night. JB
&&
.MARINE...Building offshore high pressure has strengthened
northerly winds, especially in the outer waters (over 10 nm
offshore). Wind gusts today peak around 25-35 kts in the outer
waters, with much lighter winds of 10-15 kts or less nearshore.
Despite lighter winds nearshore, steep seas may propagate nearshore
south of Cape Mendocino this afternoon. Wave heights peak this
evening at around 8-11 ft in the outer waters and 6-8 ft nearshore.
Winds begin to ease Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough approaches the
area and weakens the pressure gradient, with peak wind gusts below
15 kts everywhere outside of 40-60 nm offshore by Wednesday.
Combined seas also ease to around 5-7 ft everywhere. Winds increase
again late week. NBM is showing around a 40% chance for gale force
gusts by Friday, mainly in the outer waters and the lee of Cape
Mendocino. Steep seas are currently forecast to build to 10-12 ft in
the outer waters. JB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure building early this week will
quickly warm and dry conditions. Highs will likely peak Tuesday
with the hottest valley just shy of 100 and min RH in the upper
teens. Northeast afternoon winds will also be slightly enhanced
Monday and Tuesday afternoon around the rim of the Sacramento
Valley with some gusts in Lake County likely up to 20 mph.
Conditions will slightly ease (particularly daytime RH) Wednesday
and beyond. There is a very slight chance of thunderstorms for
Mendocino and Lake Counties on Wednesday, yet convective allowing
models are uncertain that there will be the right mix of
atmospheric ingredients to create these storms. /JHW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ455.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion