Fiesta Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

439
FXUS62 KKEY 020719
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A relatively quiet overnight for the Florida Keys. We did start
the night with residual shower activity drifting off the mainland.
Most of this activity diminished but a batch of showers moving
through the deep Gulf waters have managed to survive. Otherwise,
winds are turning north to northeast as high pressure across the
Eastern Seaboard begins to exerting its influence equatorward.
Temperatures range between the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew
points hanging around the mid 70s.
.FORECAST...
The main focus for shower development today will be across the
mainland during the day and afternoon, which will then drift south
to southwest across the island chain. The best chances will
across the Upper Keys with the Lower Keys having a lesser chance
depending on if the activity holds together. The aforementioned
high pressure along the East Coast will slowly attempt to move
into the western North Atlantic. As this occurs it will gradually
continue to build equatorward and exert more of its influence
across the Florida Keys.
This will result in freshening northeast to east breezes Friday
with an increased threat for showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm. Then eyes will turn to a feature that will develop
across the Southeastern Bahamas starting Friday. A subtle easterly
undulation will be moving along the periphery of the Bermuda High.
The trajectory would focus it across South Florida, including the
Florida Keys. Models are struggling with any form of
organization. Best case scenario it remains a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms with a quasi-warm front
lifting north across the area. This would equate to a wet weekend
for at least portions of the Keys. Worst case scenario (and we
want to preface that the National Hurricane Center only has a 10
percent chance of development at this time) a weak tropical
disturbance takes form. At this time, it is way too early to tell
what this feature may ultimately become but it does bear watching
in the meantime.
Whether a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, or
a weak tropical disturbance, it will move northwest into the Gulf
over the upcoming weekend. By early next week, high pressure along
the Eastern Seaboard will fill back in with freshening northeast
to east breezes. This combined with residual moisture looks to
continue the above normal rain chances.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The Gulfstream remains backed up from Imelda and is creating for
higher tides, especially in the nearshore waters surrounding the
Middle and Upper Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under
fixed bridges. High pressure is slowly moving across the eastern
U.S., which will maintain a northeast wind across our waters
today. This high will begin moving into the western North Atlantic
later today and into the overnight and gradually build. This will
lead to freshening northeast to east breezes into Friday evening.
Winds will then briefly clock around towards the southeast for
the upcoming weekend and return from the east early next week.
Another period of moderate to fresh breezes is possible starting
Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 06Z TAF
period. Shower chances remain slightly above normal for this time of
the year. Latest guidance a potential repeat yesterday with
convection on the mainland moving southwestward weakening as it
progresses across the Keys. Due to uncertainty in timing and
placement, VCSH was not included in the TAF. Near surface winds will
be mainly north to northeast between 3 to 8 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  77  88  77 /  30  30  30  40
Marathon  87  77  85  77 /  30  30  40  40
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....MJV
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion