First Mesa, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

432
FXUS65 KFGZ 052327
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
427 PM MST Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Expect pleasant Fall-like weather for the first half
of the week. Unsettled conditions with precipitation chances
return to the area during the second half of the week and last
through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Southwesterly flow aloft generated by a ridge to our
southeast and a trough over the eastern Pacific will keep
pleasant Fall weather over the region for the first half of the
week. Temperatures will be at seasonal averages for Monday but
warm to about 5 degrees above average for the rest of the week.
With the dry air in place and light to nonexistent winds at night,
overnight temperatures once again will take a nosedive tonight
and tomorrow before moderating a little as the week progresses.
Still many questions exist on how things will turn out starting on
Thursday. It will all be dependent on when and how much moisture
gets drawn north from tropical cyclone Priscilla and the arrival
of the next West Coast trough. Still some slight POPs for things
to occur Thursday into Friday, mainly favoring the northwestern
half of Arizona. Better POPs are showing up over the weekend as
the West Coast trough slowly moves through providing the needed
dynamics. Still waiting on some better model agreement before we
look at advertising any weather headlines and impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...Monday 06/00Z through Tuesday 07/00Z...VFR expected.
Daytime SW winds less than 10 kts, becoming variable during the
overnight period.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/00Z through Thursday 09/00Z...VFR expected.
Daytime SW winds 5-10 kts, becoming light and variable during
the overnight periods.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Look for warm days and dry
conditions. Winds southwesterly at 5-10 mph each afternoon, along
with minimum RH of 10-20%.
Wednesday through Friday...A slight chance for showers is forecast
over the White Mountains on Wednesday, with increasing chances area
wide on Thursday and Friday. Daytime winds southwesterly at 5-15 mph
each day. Warm temperatures will continue.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion