Florence, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

575
FXUS63 KSGF 162355
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
655 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered pulse thunderstorms will occur this afternoon into
  early this evening, mainly along and west of Highway 65.
  Strong to marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with a
  few of the stronger storms.
- Scattered thunderstorms will occur again Wednesday afternoon
  and early evening mainly along and west of Highway 65 and
  along and north of I-44.
- Highs in the 90s continue across the area today and Wednesday
  and across the eastern Ozarks on Thursday.
- A cold front will move through the area from the west Thursday
  into Friday, bringing more seasonal temperatures and
  widespread rain chances to the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The region remains under an upper level ridge and a warmer air
mass today. Highs will continue to warm into the lower 90s this
afternoon with heat index values in the lower to middle 90s.
Instability is increasing across the area mainly west of
Highway 65 with the heating of the day as the cap is weakening.
Isolated storms are starting to develop across extreme
southeastern Kansas into far southwestern Missouri early this
afternoon. Deep layer shear is weak across the area so these
storms will be weak in nature and storm motions will be very
slow. Precipitable water values are between 1.50 and 1.75" and
with the slow storm motion very locally heavy rain will be
possible with the storms. Scattered storms will continue to
develop mainly along and west of Highway 65 this afternoon into
early this evening before dissipating around sunset this
evening. Further east a drier air mass is in place so much of
the area will remain dry - there is slightly better moisture
across far south central Missouri where an isolated shower/storm
may be possible but most locations should remain dry. The
stronger storms will be capable of producing down bursts, but
should generally remain below 40mph, but a few of the strongest
storms could be capable of a wind gusts up to 60 mph and strong
hail. The storms will move very little before they dissipate.
The low level wind field would support new storm development to
the north/northeast along outflows of previous storms.
Highs will once again warm into the 90s on Wednesday as
scattered afternoon/evening storms develop mainly along and
west of Highway 65 and along and north of I-44. Most storms will
remain sub severe but a few stronger wind gusts up to 50 mph
may be possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
An upper level low will move into the central Plains on
Wednesday and will lift northeast across the region Thursday
night into Friday. Models are coming in a little slower with the
system with with a front starting to move into the area from
west to east Thursday afternoon into Friday. As a result highs
continue to increase along and east of Highway 65 with highs in
the lower 90s expected again on Thursday. West, highs in the
middle 80s are expected. More in the way of widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front as it
moves east into the area Thursday afternoon. The upper level
trough will move more to the north/northeast as the front moves
east so the better upper level support will be across the
western and northern portions of the area. Therefore, as the
front moves east Thursday afternoon and evening coverage in the
showers and storms could become more scattered in nature as the
upper level trough lifts northeast. The low will remain
northwest of the area and a secondary wave will move around the
low and through the area on Friday with additional showers and
embedded storms developing on Friday. Despite the more wide
spread nature of the rain, rainfall amounts will not be overall
heavy with generally 1/4-1/2" with localized amounts to around
1" with this system as the ensemble model members are showing
less than a 30% chance of greater than an 1" of rain across much
of the area with a 30 to 50% chance for an 1" or more of rain
along and west of I-49.
Slightly cooler weather will occur on Friday and Saturday as
highs in the lower to middle 80s occur. There could be some
lingering rain into Saturday as the upper level low moves off
to the east.
The ensemble model members are trending warmer on Sunday with
highs in the middle 80s to the lower 90s then differ early next
week with another system. The models differ from run to run and
with each other on the structure, track and timing of another
system. Additional rainfall chances will be possible with the
passage of the trough early next week but will be dependent on
the exact timing and track of the system. The ensemble model
members are also showing a lager rain in potential highs next
week, as some models show are ridge building over and highs in
the lower 90s while other members show a low over the region and
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Convection is quickly diminishing this evening, leaving VFR
conditions and light winds for tonight and Wednesday morning.
Additional isolated storms will be possible on Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
September 17:
KJLN: 95/1953
KUNO: 97/1953
September 18:
KVIH: 95/1953
KUNO: 96/1972
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Nelson

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion